It's
going to be a testing day at racecourses up and down the country today with the
ground likely to be heavy at most courses. Horses who love cut will have to be
at the forefront of punters' minds and there's a few favs out there at the
moment, in my view, who won't act on it.
The
1.50 at Goodwood looks a field full of fillies who could potentially be stars
but I think most of them won't perform to their best in this race. Happy
Romance is stepping up to 7f for the first time on heavy ground, Pomelo is likely
to be a non runner by the time this piece goes to press and Isabella Giles has
to prove she stays the trip. Therefore, I think SEATTLE ROCK is wildly overpriced at 10/1 given we know she stays
the trip and handles the cut.
She was a big eye
catcher at Ascot when steaming home and has since backed that run up in the
Sweet Solera. I think this 7f trip today will really test their stamina and if
there is a filly ready for the test then it is my selection and that's why she
is worth a poke at 10/1.
The 2.05 at
Newmarket is a similar race in nature as there a lot of horses with question
marks over their head. I tipped BRAD THE
BRIEF last time at Chester in a handicap and he ran too bad to be true that
day. He steps back up to listed company today and I think he could be
overpriced at 20/1. Connections clearly think a bit of him as this is his
second step into this grade this season and he performed admirably at Haydock.
He seems to handle the softer surface and he could outrun his rating and his
odds today.
The 3.00 at
Goodwood is a real trappy contest. All four could win and regular readers will
know how much of a fan I am of Subjectivist. However, I'm going against him
today with CELTIC ART who caught my
eye on his return here over shorter. Paul & Oliver Cole's horse ran a tidy
race off top weight that day but couldn't quicken towards the line like his
rivals. I think this step up in trip could really suit and he proved in France
last year that he likes this sort of ground when staying on powerfully to finish
second in a decent race. I predict Subjectivist to dictate a steady gallop up
front but I think late on, he may be susceptible to an improver like Celtic
Art. Cabaletta is the lay here, she was flattered last time in a 3 runner race
and her form previous isn't good enough to get involved.
Hand on heart, I
seriously looked at JUNKANOO last
time out over course and distance where he ran out the winner at long odds. I
could be jumping on a ship that has already sailed but I do like his chances
here today. A 7lb rise is fair for such a high profile victory and he arguably
steps down in grade today so he should make his presence felt.
My best bet of the
day runs in the 7.45 at Redcar and is probably the most aptly named horse of
the day given the recent poor weather. WEATHER
FRONT ran a super race on debut for Ian Jardine when staying on from miles
back to nab second. The winner that day was absolutely thrown in and finished
miles clear but my selection was the only horse who finished in the same
postcode and didn't race on the front end. The handicapper didn't react which
delighted me and makes him a ‘must back' today.
Goodwood 1.50 – Seattle Rock – 1pt win
Newmarket 2.05 – Brad The Brief – 0.5pts e/w
Goodwood 3.00 – Celtic Art – 1pt win
Goodwood 4.45 – Junkanoo – 1pt win
Redcar 7.45 – Weather Front – 3pt win
