There is the prospect of thundery showers to hit Newbury on
Friday and Saturday ahead of today's card although, at the time of writing, the
ground is described as good to soft – good in places.
Morando finished runner up in the Geoffrey Freer 12 months
ago on soft ground and Andrew Balding's mudlark is the one to beat if the
forecast rain does arrive. Without that knowledge, however, the vote goes to
the Royal Ascot winner Hukum (3.00). The selection has yet to race on
soft ground and, as a son of Sea The Stars, is not guaranteed to appreciate
such conditions, but he looked a Group horse in a handicap when winning the
King George V Stakes back in June on ground that was just on the soft side of
good.
On official figures the three-year-old has plenty to find with
the older horses, but the classic generation have won two of the last three
renewals of this Gp 3 contest and Hukum gets the vote as long as conditions do
not deteriorate markedly.
Threat (3.35) travelled well before fading in the
last couple of furlongs in the St James's Palace Stakes over a mile on his
reappearance before not having the pace to threaten the best sprinters in the
6f July Cup last time. The intermediate 7f trip of the Hungerford Stakes should
be ideal although Richard Hannon's three-year-old is unproven on soft ground.
The 5/1 with bet365 looks fair despite the reservations if the rain arrives.
Annie De Vega (4.45) has been well backed on both
starts to date, and she is taken to defy an opening mark of 78 in the 10f
handicap despite being drawn out wide in stall 14. Ralph Beckett's filly is not
guaranteed to appreciate today's trip, especially on soft ground, but she has
shown more than enough in her short career to suggest she is up to winning from
her current mark.
Firm ground is the order of the day at Newmarket and Night
Bear (2.05) was last off the bridle but was ultimately outstayed over 1m 6f
at Haydock last time and dropping back in trip by a quarter of a mile should not
inconvenience Ed Vaughan's lightly-raced three-year-old who had previously
scored at Redcar over 10f. This intermediate trip should be ideal.
In the finale I hope to see Expressionism (5.00) give
weight and a beating to her seven rivals in the 1m 6f handicap. The selection
was no match for Katara here over a shorter trip in listed company on her
belated reappearance, but she looks sure to come on for the run and I feel the
winner is very smart. Charlie Appleby's filly has been given a 6lbs hike in the
weights which is a concern, but she has only had four career starts and is open
to further improvement. I am pleased to see Godolphin using the excellent Kevin
Stott.
At Doncaster Tinker Toy (4.00) can maintain his
unbeaten record in the 7f handicap. The selection has scored at Salisbury and
over today's C&D and he is able to carry bottom weight this afternoon
against largely exposed handicappers. The notable exception is the Marcus
Tregoning trained Ghalyoon who makes his seasonal debut today and is a 5-y-old
with just the three career starts. The fact that his powerful connections have
seen fit to persevere with him speaks volumes and it will be interesting to see
what the market says about his chance.
At Chepstow Island Nation (8.00) ran his best race
yet over today's C&D last time on his first try at 12f and he was doing all
his best work at the end. The hope is that apprentice Stefano Cherchi can get
the selection into a more prominent position with his stamina now guaranteed.
