Andy Newton

John Smith’s Cup trends and stats – put history on your side to help find York winner

by
Andy Newton
10 July 2026

Into July we trot, and it’s hard to believe that the new jumps season proper is now only around three months away.

Before we get to that, though, there’s still plenty of quality Flat racing to enjoy.

Alongside Newmarket’s ever-popular July Festival, another fixture that catches the eye is York’s famous John Smith’s Cup, which falls on the same weekend.

This year’s renewal takes place on Saturday, July 11. Some of the more seasoned readers may still know it as the Magnet Cup, but the race remains a fiercely competitive handicap run over 1m2½f.

It’s also one of the few remaining races still backed by the well-known brewery John Smith’s.

Their association with the contest dates all the way back to its inaugural running in 1960, meaning the race has remarkably had just one sponsor throughout its history.

The brewery is now entering its 67th year supporting the event, making it the longest-running sponsorship association with a Flat race anywhere in the world.

And for a handicap, the prize money is certainly attractive, with a winner’s cheque worth just over £100,000. Unsurprisingly, that helps ensure a highly competitive field every year.

Twelve months ago, Andrew Balding secured his third John Smith’s Cup success when Fox Legacy (1^st 10/1) landed the prize – a horse I tipped up on the Final Furlong Podcast too.

10-1 FOX LEGACY wins the John Smith's Cup Handicap under PJ McDonald 🏆@AndrewBalding2 | @yorkracecourse pic.twitter.com/gPZGrsG14i

— ITV Racing (@itvracing) July 12, 2025

So, with the 2026 renewal on the horizon, let’s look at some of the key trends and stats for the ITV Racing contest.

John Smith’s Cup Key Trends 📈

22/24 – Returned 20/1 or shorter in the betting
22/24 – Had won over 1m1f or further before
20/24 – Aged 5 or younger
16/24 – Returned 14/1 or shorter in the betting
15/24 – Came from stall 9 or higher
15/24 – Carried 9-4 or less
14/24 – Aged 4 years-old
14/24 – Had between 3-5 previous runs already that season
13/24 – Top 4 finish in their previous race
13/24 – Officially rated between 99-105
10/24 – Had run at York before
6/24 – Ran at Royal Ascot last time out
3/24 – Won by trainer Richard Fahey
3/24 – Trained by William Haggas
3/24 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
3/24 – Trained by Andrew Balding (3 of the last 7)
2/24 – Trained by Roger Varian (2 of the last 12)
Since 1960 just one winner older than 6
12 of the last 15 winners aged 4 or 5
9 of the last 12 winners carried 9st 3lbs or more
The average winning SP in the last 24 years is 11/1

Betting Market

The 2023 winner Pride Of America scored at 18/1 – while, as mentioned Fox Legacy won last year and returned at 10/1. Those results further support the trend that 22 of the last 24 winners were sent off at 20/1 or shorter.

At the same time, 10 of the last 14 winners started at double-figure odds, ranging from 10/1 to 33/1.

With 16 of the last 24 winners were priced at 14/1 or shorter, while the average winning SP over that period works out at 11/1.

Favourites

Following on from the betting trends, how have favourites fared?

In short, not particularly well.

Since 2007, there’s been only one winning favourite, Anmaat in 2022, and even he wasn’t the outright market leader.

Before that, you must go back to Fairmile in 2006, who also shared favouritism rather than heading the market alone.

That means we’ve now gone 20 renewals without an outright winning favourite. The last was Mullins Bay at 4/1 in 2005.

Last year’s market leader Archivist ran well enough but had to settle for third at 15/8.

Age

The age trends suggest older horses generally struggle, despite six-year-olds winning in both 2021 and 2023.

Overall, 20 of the last 24 winners – 83% – were aged five or younger.

Looking further back, since 1960 there has been only one winner older than six, with the seven-year-old Educate scoring in 2016.

The 2024, 2022 and 2020 winners were all four-year-olds, while horses aged four and five have dominated recent renewals, accounting for 12 of the last 15 winners. Last year’s winner Fox Legacy also fell into the four-year-old category.

Trip

With the John Smith’s Cup run over 1m2½f, it’s no surprise that 22 of the last 24 winners had already won over at least 1m1f.

Most of the 2026 contenders are likely to tick that box, but it’s still a useful trend to keep in mind, particularly if any runners are stepping up significantly in trip.

Draw

Given the distance, you’d assume the draw wouldn’t play a major role.

However, there has been a notable bias over the years, with 15 of the last 24 winners emerging from stall nine or higher. That’s a respectable 63% strike-rate.

That trend has taken a bit of a knock recently, though. Pride Of America won from stall two in 2023, while Enfjaar scored from gate one in 2025.

But got back on track in 2025 with Fox Legacy winning from gate 19.

Recent Form

Horses that had already run between three and five times during the season have performed well, accounting for 14 of the last 24 winners.

It’s also worth focusing on runners that finished in the first four on their previous start, with 13 of the last 24 winners fitting that profile.

Royal Ascot form can be another useful guide. Seven of the last 24 winners had raced at the Berkshire meeting the month before.

Backed up again in 2025, when Fox Legacy was 6^th in the Royal Hunt Cup at the Royal Meeting.

Previous Track Form

Ten of the last 24 winners had previous experience at York, which represents 42% of the total.

That said, with 58% of winners having no previous run on the Knavesmire, this is probably one trend not to get too carried away with.

York is a straightforward, galloping track with a long home straight, so horses making their course debut are rarely inconvenienced by the layout.

Weight

Enfjaar carried 9st 1lb to victory in 2024 and Fox Legacy 9st 4lbs – and we’ve seen 15 of the last 24 winners carry 9st 4lb or less.

However, this is one angle that may be starting to shift.

Nine of the last 12 winners have carried 9st 3lb or more, so it’s a trend worth treating with a little caution rather than following blindly.

Top Stables

William Haggas has built up an excellent record in the race, winning it three times since 2011, including a success in 2020.

Andrew Balding has also enjoyed plenty of recent success, landing the prize three times in the last seven years – including again in 2025 with Fox Legacy.

While Roger Varian now boasts two victories since 2014 following Enfjaar’s win in 2024.

And finally, with the best stables – the Richard Fahey team also deserves respect, having enjoyed a purple patch between 2002 and 2008 when they won the race three times.