Ben Morgan’s tips – Epsom Derby weekend – Amelia Earhart to fly home in the Oaks

Racing Ahead’s resident tipster Ben Morgan selects his best bets for the action across the Epsom Derby weekend.

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Friday

Epsom 1.30 – Naana to relish the Dash

If Oisin Murphy can get NAANA’S SHADOW to break as quick as she did at York last time then I think this race could be over quite quickly.

She sprung out of the gates on the Knavesmire which looked an obvious advantage at the time but she probably ended up using a little bit too much gas early and got caught in the closing stages.

That effort did however suggest she should be winning races this Summer off her current mark of 78 around courses like Goodwood, Chester and obviously Epsom.

With Murphy booked you would have to be confident in her chances. One at bigger prices who would benefit from a pace collapse and some softer ground is CALL MARGOT who couldn’t quite lay up last time on quick ground in that same aforementioned York race.

She did before though, look a much improved performer when held up at Southwell and if the race is run to suit she is certainly no back number.

Epsom 4.00 – Amelia cleared for take off in Fillies Classic

Very positive comments from Moore and O’Brien in the early stages of Spring about a filly with very average two year old form certainly caught my attention and I am glad it did.

I have been supporting AMELIA EARHART ante post since those comments on the basis that this is a familiar route that Ballydoyle have charted.

Love and Minnie Hauk are two notable winners of this race which spring to mind when I think of horses who have improved hand over fist from 2 to 3 and gone on to become tailor made for this unique test.

Having backed both of those antepost, I felt compelled to follow this one in as well and after she won at Chester, I’d even go as far as saying she could be better than both at this trip.

Her pedigree is all stamina and she was always going to improve for this step up in trip, especially given her size too so it would have pleased connections to see her clear away at Chester in good style.

I don’t think she was really asked to open up that day either which bodes well for Friday as there should be plenty more to come.

As I look at the race now, slightly biased with my antepost slips in my back pocket, I just think she is further forward in terms of her development than her rivals and it could be a case of Woman against Girls. 

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Saturday

Epsom 3.15 – Democracy called for in Cowell’s Dash Dilemma

It’s hard to believe Robert Cowell has not managed to land the Epsom Dash yet given his fine track record with sprinters but I get the feeling this year might just be his best chance.

DEMOCRACY DILEMMA is an old favourite of mine and it seems like he has been bought along steadily this season in order for his handicap mark to drop enough to now give him a better chance in races like this.

A proper speed ball seems to have been handed a good draw in order to attack from the front and if ready to roll I think he might take some pegging back.

If there is a horse who might catch him, it is his much improved stable mate LEXINGTON BLITZ.

Seemingly much improved for the Winter break, he has reappeared as a four year old in fine form, coming well clear at Goodwood last time out which earned him a 9lb rise.

Again, he seems to appreciate a really fast pace to follow which he will undoubtedly get here, and with a second place finish in last year’s 3 year old Dash in his form book he could be primed for a personal best here. 

Epsom 4.00 – Action Man Lordan could be set for another big day

If history teaches you anything about the Epsom Derby in recent years, it is the fact to expect the unexpected.

There have been plenty of big priced winners and most have come from the O’Brien stable.

A lot of these have benefited from the tactics which Ballydoyle employ where it is possible that one or two can slip away from the field and I can see a situation this year where a second or third string could pinch it from the front.

ACTION would be an obvious one as he looks to be improving from run to run this season, presumably with the idea of him peaking for this race on Saturday.

I find it interesting that he is yet to try 1m 4f despite being a brother to last year’s Derby hero, Lambourn.

I think he will relish the extra distance and I expect him to ridden prominently which will give him a great chance of finishing in the places at least.

Stablemate CHRISTMAS DAY is another horse with a similar profile and again is a horse I would be very confident in staying the trip.

Seemingly outpaced in the Dante last time he did stay on quite nicely to finish third and again depending which O’Brien outsider is going to go on and make the running, I think there is an opportunity for the other to steal a march on the rest of the field, including favoured stablemate Benvenuto Cellini, as they enter the straight and be ready to pick up the pieces if the front runner cries enough close to home. 

READ MORE: Andy Newton’s Epsom Oaks Day ITV Racing Tips and Stats: Can Aidan O’Brien Land a Twelfth Oaks?