Andy Newton’s Epsom Oaks Day ITV Racing Tips and Stats: Can Aidan O’Brien Land a Twelfth Oaks?

It’s day one of the Epsom Derby Festival on Friday and that means Oaks Day – so see my ITV Epsom Racing horse racing tips for all the live races on Friday 5th June.

• 1:30 EPSOM: TEMPLE OF ATHENA (e/w)
• 2:05 EPSOM: POSSESSIVE
• 2:40 EPSOM: PERSICA
• 3:15 EPSOM: ALPHA CRUCIS / BOLSTER
• 4:00 EPSOM OAKS: A LA PROCHAINE (e/w)
• 4:40 EPSOM: MR WINSTON / MIRSKY

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Andy Newton Epsom Horse Racing Tips: Back Beckett To Land Third Oaks

1:30 EPSOM – Win With Zyn 3yo “Dash” Handicap Cl2 (3yo 0-100) 5f ITV

A tricky opener but Friday’s first Epsom horse racing tip should be a nice price – with a chance taken on the Brian Ellison-trained TEMPLE OF ATHENA.

This 3yold has been running in better races than this, so the dip back into a handicap from Listed company will help – plus is back rated 2lbs lower.

She’s got a fair draw in 5 too and also won’t mind any rain – having won on good-to-soft and soft in the past.

While, despite only three past runnings, it’s interesting that all three winners carried between 9st and 9st 7lbs – Temple has the latter.

Of the rest, She’s Got A Brother and Wedonttellies are noted – but I’ll be ‘praying’ for the Temple here.

🥇TEMPLE OF ATHENA
🥈She’s Got A Brother 
🥉Wedonttellies 

Key Stats 📈

• Only 3 past runnings
• Trainers Richard Fahey, Gemma Tutty & Michael Dods have won the race before
• Both winners returned 8/1 or less (no winning fav)
• 3/3 – Winners carried between 9-0 and 9-7
• 2/3 – Winners drawn high (13) and (20)

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2:05 EPSOM – Oddschecker British EBF Woodcote Stakes (Conditions Race) (GBB Race) Cl2 (2yo) 6f ITV

With the 6f course here at Epsom on the turn, then being drawn low has helped in recent years – backed up with 19 of the last 23 winners drawn 6 or lower.

It’s also interesting that ALL of the last three winners hailed from gate 6, which is the berth POSSESSIVE has.

This Karl Burke runner caught my eye last time when winning on debut at York and even though that form is hard to assess (not many have run since), it still looked a fair opening effort.

The Burke juvenile runners also tend to improve a fair bit from their opening races – which is another obvious plus.

If Ardad Steve wasn’t draw in 14, he’d be interesting too, but still looks a horse to note whatever happens here.

While drawn next to the pick in 7 is Dandyman Dan, who looked a bit unlucky at Sandown the last day.

But I’ll take Possessive to ‘own’ this one.

🥇POSSESSIVE
🥈Dandyman Dan
🥉Ardad Steve

Key Stats 📈

• 23/23 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
• 22/23 – Had won over either 5 or 6f before
• 21/23 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
• 20/23 – Returned 15/2 or shorter in the betting
• 19/23 – Single-figured stalls that filled the first two home
• 19/23 – Winners from stall 6 or lower
• 17/23 – Had 2 or more previous runs
• 14/23 – Won their previous race
• 12/23 – Yet to win over 6f
• 11/23 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
• 5/23 – Trained by the Johnston yard (Mark) (2002, 2003, 2011, 2015 & 2017)
• 3/23 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard
• 3/23 – Trained by Mick Channon
• 3/23 – Ridden by William Buick (3 of the last 11)
• Charlie Appleby has won 2 of the last 7
• 11 of the last 17 winners were foaled in Feb (3) or March (8)
• 9 of the last 11 winners from stalls 3-6 (inc)
• 6 of the last 11 winners from stalls 5 (2) or 6 (4)
• The last 3 winners came from stall 6

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2:40 EPSOM – Betfred Diomed Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m½f ITV

We’ve got last year’s first PERSICA, second (Ice Max) and fourth (Royal Playwright) back for more in the Diomed Stakes and I think we might just see history repeating itself.

The Richard Hannon-trained winner of this 12 months ago seems to save his best for the Downs – as he’s 2-2 at Epsom, having won here in 2024 too.

He’s had a similar prep to last year too – running in the Earl Of Sefton Stakes at Newmarket and that spin should have him spot-on for this.

Draw 1 is fine as he’s versatile in terms of running style and acts on all ground.

So, with this race sure to have been his big target again this season, I’ll take Persica to make it 3-3 at the track.

With Seagulls Eleven and last year’s silver Ice Max to battle it out for the places.

🥇PERSICA
🥈Ice Max
🥉Seagulls Eleven

Key Stats 📈

• 21/22 – Had won over at least a mile before
• 20/22 – Had won a Listed or Group race before
• 20/22 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
• 19/22 – Drawn in stall 7 or lower
• 18/22 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
• 17/22 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
• 17/22 – Returned 17/2 or shorter in the betting
• 16/22 – Had won at least 4 times before
• 14/22 – Aged 5 or older
• 13/22 – Had raced at Epsom before
• 10/22 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
• 6/22 – Won last time out
• 6/22 – Winning favourites
• 3/22 – Trained by Andrew Balding
• 3/22 – Ridden by William Buick
• 2/22 – Trained by the Crisford stable
• The Hannon yard have won 2 of the last 5 runnings
• Ryan Moore has ridden 3 of the last 7
• The last 11 winners drawn 7 or lower
• 6 of the last 11 winners drawn 1,2 or 3
• Persica won this race in 2025

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3:15 EPSOM – Betfred “Nifty 50” Handicap (GBBplus Race) Cl2 (4yo+) 1m2f ITV

Roger Varian has a good record in this race – winning 4 of the last 12, so his recent Epsom second Sallaal is noted.

Respond was a good winner at Chester, but is up 9lbs, while the Harry Charlton yard have been going well and run Hand Of God.

Quai De Bethune hasn’t been seen since winning at Royal Ascot, and you feel the Hunt Cup or John Smith’s Cup might be his target after this.

So, a chance is taken on the 2024 winner BOLSTER and also the Moore runner ALPHA CRUCIS. 

Bolster won this off 102 two years back and is 6lbs higher but has been gelded since his last run and has also been running in better races than this.

Then Alpha Crucis is another horse that seems to like it here at Epsom – with two seconds, including on this card last season (4:40).

Softer ground is fine too and he’s back rated a pound lower than 12 months ago.

🥇BOLSTER
🥈Alpha Crucis
🥉Sallaal

Key Stats 📈

• 19/22 – Had won over at least 1m2f or further before
• 19/22 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
• 17/22 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
• 17/22 – Came from stall 9 or lower
• 15/22 – Had won at least 3 times before
• 14/22 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
• 13/22 – Rated between 86-98
• 13/22 – Placed favourites
• 13/22 – Irish bred
• 12/22 – Carried 9-0 or less in weight (but 7 of the last 9 carried 9-2 or more)
• 12/22 – Came from the top three in the betting
• 11/22 – Winning distance – 1 length or shorter
• 8/22 – Had raced at the track before
• 7/22 – Won last time out
• 6/22 – Winning favourites
• 4/22 – Trained by Roger Varian (4 of the last 12)
• 3/22 – Raced at Goodwood last time out
• Bolster won this in 2024

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16:00 EPSOM – Betfred Oaks (Group 1) (Fillies) Cl1 (3yo) 1m4f ITV

Onto the Oaks and it’s a race Aidan O’Brien and John Gosden have dominated this in recent times (winning 11 of the last 12).

O’Brien has the expected favourite Amelia Earhart, who landed the Cheshire Oaks last time in great fashion and will be looking to do what last year’s winner of that race (Minnie Hauk) did and take the Oaks.

But she doesn’t look the most straight-forward to me – backed up with a hood and blinkers on.

Legacy Link will be looking to be the nineth Musidora winner to follow-up in the Oaks and she looks unexposed after that gusty York win.

But did that effort leave a mark? It looks a brutal ding-dong in the closing stages that day, so we’ll find out.

Venetian Lace could be the forgotten horse in the race – she was third in the 1000 Guineas and is the top-rated here.

Yes, we don’t know if she’ll stay, but is out of a Derby winner Masar, so the is a good chance.

Cameo impressed me in the Lingfield Oaks Trial, beating a horse I like Prizeland and jockey Wayne Lordan, could easily grab his first win in the race here.

But a chance is taken on the Cheshire Oaks third – A LA PROCHAINE, who stayed on well that day (3rd) to suggest the slightly longer trip (and hopefully softer ground) will help.

Her trainer Ralph Beckett also has a fair record in the Oaks winning the pot with Look Here and Talent in the past.

Translated to ‘See You Next Time’ – I’ll be hoping we’ll be seeing A La Prochaine this time.

🥇A LA PROCHAINE
🥈Legacy Link 
🥉Cameo 

Key Stats 📈

• 24/24 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
• 22/24 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
• 19/24 – Horses from stall 1 that were unplaced
• 16/24 – Won over at least 1m2f previously
• 16/24 – Favourites that were placed
• 15/24 – Won last time out
• 10/24 – Irish-trained winners
• 9/24 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (10 total)
• 6/24 – Won by the favourite (1 joint)
• 6/24 – Ran in the English 1,000 Guineas
• 5/24 – Returned a double-figure price
• 5/24 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
• 4/24 – Trained by John Gosden (4 of last 11)
• 2/24 – Trained by Ralph Beckett
• 1/24 – Had run over 1m4f before
• 0/24 – Had run at the course before
• 8 of the last 19 favourites were unplaced
• 9 of the last 13 winners came from stalls 5 or lower
• Trainer Aidan O’Brien has won the race 11 times
• Trainer John Gosden has won 4 of the last 12 runnings
• O’Brien and Gosden have won 11 of the last 12 runnings between them
• The average winning SP in the last 23 runnings is 10/1
• 8 past Oaks winners won the Musidora at York earlier that season
• Love (2020), Kazzia (2002) and Minding (2016) were the last horses to win both the 1,000 Guineas and Epsom Oaks
• The horse from stall 2 has been placed in 9 of the last 24 runnings and won again last year (Minnie Hauk)
• 2025: Minnie Hauk (9/2) – Trainer: Aidan O’Brien

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16:40 EPSOM – HKJC World Pool Handicap Cl2 (4yo+ 0-100) 1m½f ITV

A tough race to end the ITV Racing at Epsom on Friday – with many chances.

Sterling Knight did me a favour last month, with a good win at Newmarket and has Ryan Moore booked. But is up 5lbs and I don’t’ think he’s won off a mark as high as 92.

We’ve also got last year’s winner Mirsky back for more. He’s rated 6lbs higher this time – however, was a good winner two starts ago at Thirsk.

But a a chance is taken on the Andrew Balding runner MISTER WINSTON bouncing back to form.

He was a slightly poor beaten favourite the last day at Newmarket but had to race in a small group there and just got a bit swallowed up in the rail at the business end.

Balding has a fair record in the race, while Oisin Murphy rode the winner of this race last year and also in 2016.

While with 16 of the last 22 winners drawn 9 or lower, then gate 8 looks fine too.

🥇MISTER WINSTON 
🥈Mirsky 
🥉Sterling Knight 

Key Stats 📈

• 20/22 – Had won over at least a mile before
• 19/22 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
• 16/22 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
• 16/22 – Had won between 2-5 times before
• 16/22 – Drawn in stall 9 or lower
• 15/22 – Placed last time out
• 13/22 – Irish bred
• 13/22 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
• 13/22 – Placed favourites
• 10/22 – Carried 9-1 or more
• 10/22 – Raced at the track before
• 8/22 – Won last time out
• 5/22 – Winning favourites
• 4/22 – Raced at Sandown last time out
• 3/22 – Trained by the Johnston yard (Mark/Charlie)
• 2/22 – Trained by Andrew Balding
• 2/22 – Ridden by William Buick (2 of the last 8)
• Oisin Murphy has ridden 2 of the last 9 winners
• 13 of the last 18 winners returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
• Mirsky (9/4 fav) won this last season
• Two Tempting (12/1) won the race in 2024