Champions Day draws the 2023 flat season to a close tomorrow and with the forecast looking so bleak, it's anticipated to be a bit of a slog.
With that in mind, it's probably a positive that the longest race of the day is first up. Trueshan and Kyprios are top of the market but I couldn't really trust either at such short prices so would much rather have an each way punt on SWEET WILLIAM at 10/1 in the hope he can eek out more improvement. A rapid improver this season he looked likely to topple Trueshan at Doncaster but the latter found more in what was a very weird race. I'd be keen to take that literal form with a pinch of salt and back the young improver.
I was gutted to miss the 14/1 about VADREAM earlier in the week as she will relish this ground. I think she's going to take all the beating on this surface especially as she has proven herself to be in form on a much quicker surface recently. She was ultra impressive at Doncaster at the start of the season and I am expecting a similar performance here. I'd also give ROHAAN a squeak as he too has hit form and can handle the soft conditions.
The Fillies and Mares stinks of an upset and I'm going to have two darts at the board and hope one of them hits. Henry De Bromhead places his flat horses quite wisely and it looks like TERMS OF ENDEARMENT might be primed for a big showing on ground which should suit. Her best form has come on a softer surface and some of that form wouldn't put her too far off the best of these. She could be overlooked.
Similar comments apply to the French raider RUE BOISSONADE who has been performing respectably in some top fillies races across the pond. She gives the look of an improving type and her ability to handle this surface will put her in the picture for sure.
The QEII looks more open than the market suggests and although there might be a few drop outs between now and race day. I'm sweet on NASHWA who will relish the softer conditions and the drop back to a mile is another interesting move. She looked brilliant at Newmarket in the Falmouth when she raced over the mile and I think she is open to any amount of further improvement back over this trip.
I've been sweet on ROYAL RHYME for this race for some time and I'm glad to see connections have chanced their arm. It is quite a step up from the form he has in the book but his ability to gallop through these conditions is rare to possess so he could cause a bit of an upset. His performance at Goodwood really caught my eye and a comfortable victory in a tricky race at Ayr since sets him up nicely for this. He will love the ground and I'm confident he will be in the 3 so at 14/1 fill your boots.
The Balmoral will be a hard slog come the off and there are a few mud larks in here so it doesn't narrow the field down much. I like the claims of AWAAL who has been performing well this season and perhaps a shade unlucky not to win a few more races than what he has done. James Doyle is riding well at present and looks a good jockey booking so I'm hoping the Crisfords can round off what has been a great year in fine style.
Ascot 1.15 – Sweet William
Ascot 1.50 – Vadream / Rohaan
Ascot 2.25 – Term Of Endearment / Rue Boissonade
Ascot 3.05 – Nashwa
Ascot 3.45 – Royal Rhyme
Ascot 4.25 – Awaal
