A busy weekend ahead with Chester, York, Ascot & Newmarket on both Friday and Saturday. Plenty of action to work through for form boffs like myself and I hope to have found a few nice bets.
WESTERTON impressed me last time at Sandown when clearing away from what I thought looked like a decent field. He should have done really when you look at his form in the book but what did impress me was the fact he did it on a quick surface. Connections are adamant he is better on a quick surface, which you wouldn't necessarily believe looking at his breeding but he confirmed that belief without a shadow of a doubt last time. Heavy showers may hit Newmarket today so you can't be sure what ground we will be racing on but whatever it is, we at least know this lad will handle it.
The big race of the day is the Falmouth and I'm quietly confident on NASHWA here. She has always shown plenty of speed but breeding would suggest her to be a 10-12f filly which is the way connections mapped out her career so far but after a couple of disappointing defeats they have dropped her to a mile. If she handles the drop in trip, which I think she will, then she will take some stopping here.
Up at Chester I think recent course winner PEARLY STAR has the ability to double up from a handy draw. I was surprised Hugo Palmer's 3 year old drift to 14/1 last time but she still duly obliged, powering through the field late on to get up on the line. That performance warranted more than the 4lb hike she received so I'm hopeful she has what it takes to go in again.
Later on the card, CORMIER makes his return to the level and judged on his Chester return last season, he has to be respected. That was a really dominant performance and he is only a few pound higher but the extra distance should bring about that improvement I hope. My only concern would be if the ground turned too soft so it might be worth taking a rain check before going mad on this one.
Chester 5.45 – Pearly Star
Chester 7.30 – Cormier
Newmarket 1.50 – Westerton
Newmarket 3.35 – Nashwa
Saturday
I'm banking on Eve Johnson-Houghton enjoying a landmark day today at Newmarket as I fancy two of her three year olds. First up is BLUELIGHT BAY who lines up in the 2.50 off the back of a success at Salisbury. The trainer suggests she has now found his trip and if so then he could still be well in looking at some of the best of his two year old form.
In the big handicap of the day Johnson-Houghton looks to have an obvious chance with STREETS OF GOLD who finished third in the Jersey last time out. An unbeaten two year old last season he was slightly underwhelming on his return at Newbury but proved to be right back on form last time out. His three year old allowances in a handicap like this could be a real advantage and I think he could be the proverbial group horse in a handicap.
The July Cup is the feature race of the day and I will be watching the ground at Newmarket very closely. If there is any description with the word ‘soft' in it then I will be playing KINROSS here. Ralph Beckett's horse is the proven performer here who more often than not runs his race. He ran an ‘ok' race on his return at Ascot on ground far too quick for him and given he would have come on a lot for that outing I think he is a big player here. I don't think the three year olds are all they are talked up to be and if you look at the older horses they would have plenty to find with the selection looking at their peak form. He would be a strong selection if conditions fall right.
Up at York I think BLUE FOR YOU is going to take some beating off top weight back at his favorite track. He always seems to run his race here and this would be one of the easier assignments he has faced recently. His run at Ascot is easily forgiven and current odds of 6/1 look pretty tasty to me.
Newmarket 2.50 – Bluelight Bay
Newmarket 4.00 – Streets Of Gold
Newmarket 4.35 – Kinross
York 2.00 – Blue For You
