See Andy Newton’s ITV Horse Racing tips on Saturday 19th September – with the action coming from Ayr and Newbury. 

There are a total of NINE ITV races to look forward to over the two tracks, with the action broadcast on their ITV3 channel this weekend.

At Newbury, the Mill Reef Stakes – run this year in honour of Ian Balding – is one of the features as son Andrew will be looking for a fitting winner with Jolivette.

Then north of the border in Scotland, it’s Ayr Gold Cup day – with 8 of the last 9 winners drawn 12+ this could be a nice angle into finding ‘gold’.

So, see below Andy Newton’s 1-2-3 best bets for the ITV Races on Saturday, including his NAP.

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Andy Newton’s Quickfire ITV Horse Racing Tips: Saturday 19th September, 2026:

• 1:02 NEWBURY – FIRST INSTINCT
• 1:20 AYR – HAWKSBILL (NAP) / THUNDER ROAR 
• 1:37 NEWBURY – FRENCH DUKE / FURTHUR 
• 1:55 AYR – ICE MAX
• 2:12 NEWBURY – ARAPAHO GOLD
• 2:30 AYR – TOYOTOMI (e/w)
• 2:47 NEWBURY – GONNA FLY / FANTASY BELIEVER
• 3:05 AYR –  RUBY MOON / ANGEL IN MY HEART
• 3:40 AYR – DANCE IN THE STORM (NB) / PELLITORY 

🎙️You can also catch Andy’s views each week on the Final Furlong Podcast here.

Andy Newton’s ITV Ayr Horse Racing Tips On Saturday 19th September, 2026

 

13:20 AYR – Ladbrokes “Bet £5 Get £30 New Customer Offer” Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-100) 1m ITV3

HAWKSBILL is take to swoop here for the Richard Spencer yard, who had a top time at this meeting 12 months ago.

Okay, this 4yold hasn’t won in 17, but as a result is down to a career-low handicap mark (92) and when with Hugo Palmer was thought good enough to contest Listed and G2 races.

But he’s been running well without winning recently – including a 4th to the useful The Lost King at York last month.

Is down a pound for that and the winner of that race has since just been chinned in a Group 3.

While the 5th Blue Brother won next time too – to also frank that effort. In short, the form looks good.

Of the rest, THUNDER ROAR is noted too – having won this race in 2025 off 93 and is now rated 90.

Yes, he’s not won since, but is 2-from-3 here at Ayr and Tom Marquand is an obvious plus in the plate.

Spoken Truth and the five-time-seeking McMurray are next best.

🥇HAWKSBILL
🥈THUNDER ROAR
🥉Spoken Truth 

13:55 AYR – Ladbrokes “Get Racing Bet Builder Winnings Boosts” Doonside Cup Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m2f ITV3

ICE MAX is the call to ‘freeze out’ the rest – carrying the late Shiekh Mohammed Obaid colours, who have done well in this race.

These famous yellow and black silks have won two of the last four runnings, with one of those also trained by Karl Burke, who looks after Ice Max.

He was last seen running 4th at Epsom in the Diomed Stakes in June so has been freshened up for this with 106 days off.

But this doesn’t look the best Listed race to me and certainly won’t mind the ease in the ground – having won well on soft at Nottingham last October.

The small niggle is the trip (1m 2f), with all wins coming over shorter – but to his defence has only tried this distance twice before and not beaten far each time.

High Stock is respected too for Andrew Balding, who have won 4 of the last 13 and Oisin Murphy rides. He was one place ahead of Ice Max at Goodwood in May, but Ice Max is 3lbs better off this time.

Fast Tracker and Sea Scout are the obvious alternatives if you don’t agree with the Ice Max shout.

🥇ICE MAX
🥈High Stock
🥉Sea Scout 

14:30 AYR – Ladbrokes Ayr Silver Cup Handicap Cl2 (3yo+) 6f ITV

TOYOTOMI (e/w) was given an interesting ride the last day, when down the field at the Curragh last Sunday – or he was just unlucky!

Whatever the reason, he was out the back for much of the way – but seemed to finish well only to be steered up the back of a wall of horses.

Looking like he had loads left at the line.

Anyway, he’s back today with Oisin Murphy in the saddle this time and so I think that 6-length 10th (of 24) to Coul Angel can be upgraded a tad.

Soft ground is fine too, with his last win coming with dig underfoot at Goodwood and also over this 6f trip.

He also contested the Gold Cup on this day 12 months ago off a mark of 102 and is now rated 94, so 8lbs less.

While, don’t forget it was only a year ago he was rated 103 and taking in G3 and Listed races.

And finally on his chance, 19/23 winners also aged 5 or younger and 70% of the last 10 coming from stalls 11 or lower (gate 4) – he’s also got these stats in his corner.

Veteran Commanche Falls Could Be Over-Priced

Of the others, the old boy Commanche Falls has run many times in the Gold Cup too and is back rated a lot lower and so could be over-priced a tad at 50/1.

While our (or my) old mate Korker is back too.

He’s not won in 30 now and if you look up ‘cliff horse’ in the dictionary there’s a picture of him.

But is 15lbs below his last win and don’t forget was 3rd in the Gold Cup only two years ago off 17lbs higher.

🥇TOYOTOMI (e/w)
🥈Korker
🥉Commanche Falls

15:05 AYR – Ladbrokes “New Customers Get 50/1 Old Firm Offer” Firth Of Clyde (Group 3) Cl1 (2yo) 6f ITV

RUBY MOON (e/w) is chanced here to eclipse her rivals in a race the Fahey yard like – having won 50% of the last six.

She was a nice winner on debut at Carlisle in June and hasn’t been disgraced since running in the G2 Duchess Of Cambridge and Lowther Stakes.

So this is a slight ease in grade today and is only rated 2lbs off the two main players ahead of her in the betting – Silent Beauty and Dark Issue.

The softer ground is a small worry looking at her US pedigree, but you have to trust connections and if running they must feel she’ll be fine on it.

Silent Beauty won well at Ripon last time but probably beat little and doesn’t look great value to me.

While Dark Value was 4th in the Albany at Royal Ascot and a close 2nd in at Listed race at Salisbury last time so has to enter calculations – especially as 50% of the last 6 winners hailed from gate 4.

The Hannon yard, however, are not in the best of form.

But the one horse that looks well over-priced to me is ANGEL IN MY HEART.

She has a fair bit to find on the ratings, but is her mark of 77 right?

I’m basing this on her being a fast-finishing 2nd last time to Speed Of Sound and Doncaster – with that same horse 3rd to the 114-rated G1 winner Sun Goddess, albeit 6 1/2 lengths before that at York.

The Adrian Keatley yard also have a cracking 40% SR with their 2yolds (6-15) here at Ayr, so at 33/1 I’ll be having some sort of e/w/place play on this Harry Angel filly too.

🥇RUBY MOON (e/w)
🥈ANGEL IN MY HEART
🥉Silent Beauty

15:40 AYR – Ladbrokes Ayr Gold Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 (3yo+) 6f ITV3

DANCE IN THE STORM is the call to make a splash in the ‘big one’ and land gold for trainer Andrew Balding and jockey Oisin Murphy.

Yes, you don’t see many fillies or mares winning this race. In fact, I think the last was Lochsong back in 1993, but who trained her?

A certain Ian Balding, the father of Andrew and she was also owned by Jeff Smith, who pays the bills for Dance In The Storm – so there’s your weird story, if you like that sort of thing.

Regardless of all this, she was a good 4th the last day at York off today’s mark (99) and that form looks solid with the 3rd Coul Angel winning at the Curragh last Sunday.

It also had Air Force One back in 8th that day and he was another winner last weekend (Doncaster).

Andrew Balding is 2/13 in the Ayr Gold Cup in recent years and Murphy has won this in the past too (2013, Highland Colori).

Of the rest, last year’s winner Run Boy Run is up 5lbs – but the last ‘back-to-back’ winner was in the 1930’s.

Candy took the Silver Cup 12 months ago and is also 5lbs higher.

O’Meara Runner Can Go Well at a Price

But the other I like at a price is PELLITORY, who was a fair third to the promising Forty Years On last time at Goodwood.

He didn’t get the clearest of runs that day either and even though he wouldn’t have won – might have got a bit closer than the 3 lengths.

David O’Meara has won this race twice in the last 12 years too and the first time tongue-tie is also interesting.

Twilight Calls for jockey of the moment ‘Saffie Osborne’ has sneaked in off bottom weight too and has been running well in similar races all season.

🥇DANCE IN THE STORM
🥈PELLITORY
🥉Twilight Calls

Andy Newton’s ITV Newbury Horse Racing Tips On Saturday 19th September, 2026

13:02 NEWBURY – Dubai International Airport World Trophy Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 (3yo+) 5f ITV3

FIRST INSTINCT won this race 12 months ago and I think she can go well again.

She’s the only CD winner in the line-up and you feel this race would have been one of her main targets this season.

Any rain is fine too and also gets the handy 3lbs fillies’ allowance from most of the others.

Redorange has a good draw in 2 and could bounce back from his 11th in the Nunthorpe last time – but this is an ease in grade.

While Shagraan was a close runner-up in 2025 and has to be noted too.

And the top-rated Starlust is probably the most consistent and heads here off a good 4th to the classy Commanche Brave in the Flying Five at the Curragh last weekend.

But he’s won just once from his last 12 and the favourites are 0-7 in this.

So I’m happy to stick with First Instinct to repeat last year’s win.

🥇FIRST INSTINCT
🥈Starlust
🥉Shagraan

13:37 NEWBURY – Dubai Duty Free Autumn Cup Handicap (GBBPlus Race) Cl2 (3yo+ 0-105) 1m5½f ITV3

FRENCH DUKE and FURTHUR are the two fancied ‘F’s’ against the field here.

The former was an excellent second at York last time – just losing out in a sustained battle with Plague De Havre.

But the two pulled clear of the rest that day and Primo Lara was back in 4th.

The 5th Ernst Blofeld has run okay since, while the winner Plague De Havre boosted the form with a nice win at Chester last weekend.

Ryan Moore was jocked-up on Furthur earlier in the week so the fact he jumps ship to Primo Lara is interesting.

But the concern here for me is the 1-46 SR trainer Jane Chapple-Hyam has at Newbury.

Roaring Legend and Insanity are respected too – but the Alan King yard (Insanity) are also just 3-64 at this track.

So, the already mentioned, Furthur could be worth a saver too – now returning to Newbury.

He been out of form since winning the Geoffrey Freer (G3) here last August, but to his credit has been running in better races – including 11th in the Melbourne Cup.

His form here at the Berkshire track though reads well – 2-1-1 – and so maybe the return could spark him back to life.

William Buick rides.

🥇FRENCH DUKE
🥈FURTHUR
🥉Primo Lara 

14:12 NEWBURY – Dubai Duty Free Mill Reef Stakes (Group 2) (In honour of Ian Balding) Cl1 (2yo) 6f ITV

ARAPAHO GOLD looks a nice prospect for the Michael Dods yard – heading here on a five-timer – and is taken to carry on his winning spree.

He was last seen winning the Gimcrack at York and it was the way he battled on and stuck his neck out that I liked that day.

After the race, Dods seemed to agree and said “What I liked about York was how strong he was after the race”. 

Dods has also made no secret that he thinks this could be the best juvenile he’s had even though Nabati is 3lbs better off after coming a neck second to Arapaho Gold – I’ll take the pick to still uphold that form.

Of the rest, the fitting winner would be the Andrew Balding-trained Jolivette, with the Mill Reef named in honour of his father Ian Balding, who sadly died in January, this year.

She heads here off a fair 3rd in the Lowther Stakes and the 2nd Star Of State has won since too.

But the last filly (I think) to win the Mill Reef was Golden Silca in 1998.

So, even though it would be great for Andrew Balding to win the race named to remember his dad – I think Arapaho can land ‘Gold’ yet again.

🥇ARAPAHO GOLD
🥈Jolivette
🥉Nabati 

14:47 NEWBURY – Dubai Duty Free Handicap (GBBPlus Race) Cl2 (3yo+ 0-105) 1m2f ITV

GONNA FLY is the call to glide home in what looks a tricky final race on ITV at Newbury.

This Ralph Beckett runner was a close-up 4th last time at Sandown to an improving sort (Kokbastau) and is in here on the same mark.

Draw 3 looks fine too, with 8 or the last 11 hailing from gate 5 or lower.

Plus with only six career runs (2 wins) there should be a bit more to come from this proven course winner. Rossa Ryan rides.

Course winner Stem was just ahead of the selection last time (3rd) and they meet on similar terms.

Then one at a bigger price is FANTASY BELIEVER, who is also a proven course winner here.

He was last seen running 7th in the Shergar Cup to Asgard’s Captain and that horse has won in Hungary since to boost the form (well sort of).

But before that run was also not far behind King George V Stakes second Al Azd at Ascot (4 3/4 lengths).

This Ed Walker runner is down another 2lbs to a mark of 87 and is starting to look well-treated, with his last win coming off 2lbs higher.

🥇GONNA FLY
🥈FANTASY BELIEVER
🥉Stem 

 

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ALSO SEE: Andy Newton’s Daily Horse Racing tips and cheat sheet – including NAP, Each-Way picks, Lay Of The Day and Daily Stats.

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