Andy Newton

Melbourne Cup Trends 2026: Andy Newton’s key stats to help find the Flemington Park winner

by
Andy Newton
30 October 2026

See below as Andy Newton highlights the key Melbourne Cup trends and stats ahead of the latest running of the ‘Race That Stops a Nation’.

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Melbourne Cup Trends 2026: The Key Flemington Park Stats

As we race into November, flat racing across the UK naturally begins to wind down, while the jump season steps firmly into the spotlight.

That said, there is still plenty of top-class flat racing taking place around the globe, starting with the Breeders’ Cup early in the month.

Then, of course, comes Australia’s grandest racing spectacle: the Melbourne Cup.

Always staged on the first Tuesday of November, this year’s renewal falls on November 3^rd.

European interest remains strong as they look for their first winner since Twilight Payment gave Joseph O’Brien his second success in the race in 2020.

He’ll be eyeing third win with Epsom Derby third James J Braddock, who is part-owned by pundit Kevin Blake.

Plus could also run Trustyourinstinct and last year’s runner-up Goodie Two Shoes for the famous green and gold JP McManus silks.

This is one of the few races Joseph holds sway over this dad in – with Aidan O’Brien yet to get on the Melbourne Cup scoresheet.

We could also see last year’s home-trained winner Half Yours back for more – he’ll be looking to become the first ‘back-to-back’ winner of the big Aussie race since Makybe Diva won three cups between 2003 and 2005.

Last year’s winner also saw Jamie Melham become the second female jockey to win the Melbourne Cup – following Michelle Payne in 2015.

WATCH: Half Yours Winning The 2025 Melbourne Cup

This Flemington race has developed a real knack for producing huge surprises in recent years too.

Only in 2024 the Robbie Dolan-ridden Knight’s Choice stunned the racing world at a staggering 90/1.

Plus, cast your mind back to 2015 and Prince Of Penzance sprang another major shock at 100/1.

It just goes to show that absolutely anything can happen in Australia’s biggest race.at can help narrow down the field.

Low Draws Suffer a Tough Record

With that in mind, Andy Newton runs through the key trends and statistics th

First up, let’s talk about the draw.

Despite being run over two miles, the Melbourne Cup is contested at a relentless pace around Flemington’s sweeping turns.

Getting a smooth early position is vital when it comes to conserving precious energy over the distance.

The numbers certainly back that up, with low-drawn horses consistently struggling. A huge 91% of the last 22 winners came from stall 5 or higher.

Last year’s winner, Half Yours ticked this stat again from gate 8. While 15 of the last 22 winners came from stall 8 or higher.

It is also well worth keeping a close eye on stalls 10 and 11. In a curious quirk, 10 of the last 22 renewals saw at least one – and sometimes both- of those stalls produce a placed runner.

Overall, six of the last eight winners launched their winning bids from outer stalls: 16, 13, 18, 12, 21 and 19.

The Caulfield Cup–Melbourne Cup Double

There is also a particularly eye-catching trend worth considering when assessing this year’s field: the rare Caulfield Cup-Melbourne Cup double.

Only 13 horses in history have managed to win both races in the same season, underlining just how difficult the feat is.

Yet remarkably, two of those 13 have come in the last three years.

Without A Fight broke a 22-year drought when completing the double in 2023, before Half Yours repeated the feat in 2025.

That means the two most recent Caulfield Cup winners to line up in the Melbourne Cup have both gone on to lift the Flemington crown.

This year’s Caulfield Cup will be run on Saturday 17^th October.

Course Experience at Flemington Pays Off

‘Horses for Courses’ is a proven rule of thumb in racing, and previous experience at a particular track is rarely a drawback.

Flemington is certainly no exception. 16 of the last 22 Melbourne Cup winners had previously raced at the track, with eight of those already having a victory to their name there.

The 2023 hero, Without A Fight, gained invaluable experience at Flemington in the 2022 renewal before returning to win the race a year later.

Similarly, despite never winning at Flemington, last year’s winner Half Yours had raced there once before, then 4^th in the Turnbull Stakes the previous month.

Look for a Recent Outing

Having a recent run under their belt is another key factor.

A huge 86% of the last 22 winners had raced within the preceding five weeks, while 15 of those 22 had taken part in a race within the previous fortnight.

That makes recent race fitness a trend worth taking seriously when assessing the field.

Don’t Worry If They Didn’t Win Last Time

While recent form is always important, being beaten on their previous start certainly shouldn’t be enough to write off a contender.

15 of the last 22 winners finished in the top three on their previous start, but only six of those 22 managed to win the Melbourne Cup directly off the back of a victory-including last year’s winner Half Yours, who had won the Caulfield Cup in his previous outing.

So, while a recent win is clearly no bad thing, don’t be too quick to dismiss a horse simply because it failed to score last time out.

Set 9st 1lb as Your Weight Ceiling

Given that the Melbourne Cup is a handicap, weight is naturally a critical factor.

Every single one of the last 12 winners carried 9st 1lb or less, making that your absolute cut-off point.

Last year’s winner carried just 8st 5lb, while seven of the last 12 winners carried 8st 5lb or less.

Over the past decade, Gold Trip carried the heaviest winning weight when scoring with 9st 1lb in 2022.

Horses Aged 5+ Hold the Advantage

So, what is the optimum age for a Melbourne Cup winner?

First, it is important to remember how age is calculated.

Horses in the Southern Hemisphere officially turn a year older on August 1st, while Northern Hemisphere horses age on January 1st.

As a result, a European horse’s official age in Australia is one year older than the age listed on its form back home.

For example, 2023 winner Without A Fight is shown as a 6-year-old on UK form guides but was officially classified as a 7-year-old in Australia.

Using Australian age classification, the trends show that 17 of the last 22 winners were aged 5 or older – the equivalent of 4+ in Europe.

Although three 4-year-olds (3 in Europe) struck between 2017 and 2019, 13 of the last 16 winners have been aged 5 or older.

The oldest recent victor was Twilight Payment, who was officially an 8-year-old – 7 in Europe – when scoring for Joseph O’Brien in 2020.

Favourites Have a Dismal Record

So, how do the market leaders fare in the Melbourne Cup?

In short: not particularly well.

In fields regularly exceeding 20 runners, only three favourites have won in the last 22 renewals, with the most recent being Fiorente back in 2013.

Just nine of the last 22 market leaders even managed to finish in the frame.

Last year, the Alessandro Botti-trained Presage Nocturne was sent off at 9/2, could manage only 19^th.

The average winning starting price over this period stands at a massive 20/1, helped considerably by Knight’s Choice’s 90/1 bombshell in 2024.

Since 2015, eight winners have scored at double-digit odds, including one at triple-digit odds. So don’t be afraid to look well down the racecard when searching for value.

Last year’s winner Half Yours returned 8/1.

British & Irish Yards Have Enjoyed Recent Melbourne Cup Success

British and Irish-trained horses have enjoyed a particularly strong record in the Melbourne Cup in recent years, winning three of the last nine renewals.

Joseph O’Brien was responsible for two of those victories, striking with Rekindling in 2017 before returning to Flemington to land the prize again with Twilight Payment in 2020.

In between, Charlie Appleby got his name on the famous trophy when Cross Counter powered to victory in 2018, giving the British raiders ‘back-to-back’ wins.

While, as mentioned, Joesph’s famous father Aidan O’Brien is still searching for that elusive first Melbourne Cup success.

Despite sending numerous leading contenders to Flemington over the years, Aidan has never won the race, although he has twice finished runner-up – with Johannes Vermeer in 2017 and Tiger Moth in 2020 – as well as finishing third with Mahler in 2008.

With Joseph potentially bidding for a third Melbourne Cup victory and Aidan still looking to complete the set, the O’Brien family could once again have a major role to play in Australia’s biggest race.

Everything is set up for another thrilling renewal of Australia’s greatest race.

Will we see another huge-priced upset? Recent history suggests it is well within the realms of possibility.

On the other hand, Joseph O’Brien could capture his third victory in the race-and perhaps deliver a historic first for JP McManus……but his new retained jumps rider Harry Cobden won’t be riding!

Best of luck with your selections!

Recent Melbourne Cup Winners

2025 – HALF YOURS (8/1)
2024 – KNIGHT’S CHOICE (90/1)
2023 – WITHOUT A FIGHT (7/1)
2022 – GOLD TRIP (20/1)
2021 – VERRY ELLEEGANT (17/1)
2020 – TWILIGHT PAYMENT (25/1)
2019 – VOW AND DECLARE (10/1)
2018 – CROSS COUNTER (8/1)
2017 – REKINDLING (14/1)
2016 – ALMANDIN (10/1)
2015 – PRINCE OF PENZANCE (100/1)
2014 – PROTECTIONIST (7/1)
2013 – FIORENTE (6/1 fav)
2012 – GREEN MOON (19/1)
2011 – DUNADEN (15/2)
2010 – AMERICAIN (12/1)
2009 – SHOCKING (9/1)
2008 – VIEWED (40/1)
2007 – EFFICIENT (16/1)
2006 – DELTA BLUES (17/1)
2005 – MAKYBE DIVA (17/5 fav)
2004 – MAKYBE DIVA (13/5 fav)

Key Melbourne Cup Betting Trends and Stats

22/22 – Had won a Group class race before
20/22 – Winners from stall 5 or higher
19/22 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
18/22 – Won 8 or fewer races before
18/22 – Raced at Geelong (2), Flemington (4), Caulfield (6) or Moonee Valley (6) last time
17/22 – Aged 5 or older
16/22 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
16/22 – Had raced at Flemington Park before (8 won there)
15/22 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
15/22 – Had raced within the last 2 weeks
15/22 – Drawn in stall 8 or higher
15/22 – Won by a AUS-based horse
12/22 – Aged 6 or older
12/22 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
11/22 – Horses from stall 10 or 11 placed
10/22 – Won by a 6 year-old
9/22 – Had won over 1m7f or further before
9/22 – Placed favourites
6/22 – Winners trained in Europe (2 Irish, 1 UK, 1 German, 2 France)
6/22 – Had won just once before
6/22 – Won last time out
5/22 – Had raced in a previous Melbourne Cup
3/22 – Winning favourites
3/22 – English/Irish winners
2/22 – French-trained winners
The average winning SP in the last 22 runnings is 20/1
7 of the last 12 winners carried 8-5 or less
All of the last 12 winners carried 9-1 or less
4 of the last 6 winners carried between 8-10 and 9-1
13 horses have won the Caulfield Cup and the Melbourne Cup (same year)