Saturday TV Trends and Tips (9th October 2021)

More LIVE ITV action on Saturday 9th October for day two of the Newmarket Dubai Future Champions meeting, plus there is also LIVE racing from York. Plenty to get stuck into again with the ultra-competitive Cesarewitch Handicap one of the key betting races of the flat turf season, while the race is supported by the Autumn Stakes & the Group One Dewhurst Stakes, where we get to see some of the stars of the future.

Did you know? 15 of the last 19 Cesarewitch Handicap winners carried 9st 2lbs or less

As mentioned, ITV cameras are also at York to take in three races, with the feature being the Coral Sprint Trophy.

So as always – here at RACING AHEAD – we’ll have all the LIVE races covered from a trends angle, plus our verdicts on each race.

Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)

1.45 – Godolphin Flying Start Zetland Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 1m2f ITV

14/14 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
13/14 – Foaled in Feb, Mar or April
13/14 – Had raced in the last 4 weeks
13/14 – Won no more than twice before
12/14 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
12/14 – Had won over at least 1m before
10/14 – Placed favourites
10/14 – Drawn in stalls 2-5 (inc)
9/14 – Won last time out
6/14 – Came from stalls 2 or 3
6/14 – Winning favourites
3/14 – Ran at Leicester last time out
2/14 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/14 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/14 – Trained by the Hannon yard
2/14 – Won by a Godolphin-owned horse
1/14 – Winners from stall 1
Trainer Aidan O’Brien has won 2 of the last 4 runnings
Irish-trained winners have won 3 of the last 6

RACING AHEAD VERDICT: Another race the ‘boys in blue’ of Godolphin have a decent hand in – they run Hafit and Goldspur. Both are respected, but with Hafit being a beaten favourite last time out at Haydock and also hanging that day, then he’s got a bit to prove in my book. On the other hand, Goldspur was an easy 6 ½ length winner on debut at Sandown over a mile and over this longer trip could have more to come – he gets the nod from the Godolphin pair. Dukebox was third in the race Hafit was runner-up in last time at Haydock so has a bit of ground to make up, but could improve for the longer trip. The Aidan O’Brien yard, however, has a good record in the race – winning 2 of the last 4 – so their BLUEGRASS is interesting, while another Irish raider – UNCONQUERABLE – also has leading form. Bluegrass was a tidy winner over a mile at the Curragh last time and breeding suggests this step up in trip to 1m2f will suit (Galileo). Ryan Moore rides and he’s taken to go well. The one with the form in the book though is the Donnacha O’Brien runner – Unconquerable. This 2 yar-old was a close third in the G2 Royal Lodge Stakes at HQ last time out over a mile and the way he ran on that day suggests this step up to 1m2f is a good move. Frankie Dettori has been booked to ride, which is a further plus.  

2.20 – Emirates Autumn Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m ITV

15/16 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
15/16 – Had won over at least 7f before
14/16 – Had raced at least twice before
13/16 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
13/16 – Placed favourites
13/16 – Won between 1-2 times before
12/16 – Won last time out
12/16 – Priced 9/1 or shorter in the betting
10/16 – Foaled in Feb or March
10/16 – Irish bred
5/16 – Winning favourites
5/16 – Godolphin winners
3/16 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
3/16 – Ridden by William Buick
1/16 – Irish-trained winners
7 of the last 14 winners came between stalls 3-5
2 of the last 4 winners came from stall 9
Trainer Aidan O’Brien has NEVER won the race

Note: From 2009 back the race was staged at ASCOT, while the 2005 running was at Salisbury

RACING AHEAD VERDICT: The Aidan O’Brien camp clearly mean business here with three runners coming over from Ireland – Aikhal, Scriptwriter and United Nations. All three are last time out winners too and have to be respected, but it’s interesting that the powerful Ballydoyle yard have never won this race! In contrast, it’s a prize the Godolphin camp love to win – they’ve won 5 of the last 16 and 4 of the last 5! With that in mind, their COROEBUS gets the call. This 2 year-old was a neck runner-up in the G2 Royal Lodge Stakes at HQ last time out and on that form he’d be very hard to keep out of calculations with this being a slight drop in grade. William Buick also has a cracking record in this race – winning 3 of the last 6 – and he gets the leg-up. Of the rest, Imperial Fighter was a close second in the G3 Acomb Stakes at York last time and can improve for this step up to a mile – Oisin Murphy rides. Dubai Poet and Alflaila are others to consider, but of the O’Brien runners a chance is taken on UNITED NATIONS who was a nice winner on debut at Naas  last month. Breeding suggests he’ll improve for the step up to a mile and he holds an entry in the G1 Irish 2000 Guineas next season.

2.55 – Darley Dewhurst Stakes (Group 1) (Entire Colts & Fillies) Cl1 7f ITV

19/19 – Raced at least 3 times that season
17/19 – Yet to race at Newmarket (Rowley)
17/19 – Placed in their last race
14/19 – Won over 7f previously
14/19 – Favourites placed
13/19 – Won at least 3 times previously
13/19 – Won their last race
13/19 – Won a Group race previously
12/19 – Raced at either Goodwood (2), Longchamp (2) or the Curragh (8) last time out
12/19 – Foaled in either Feb or March
11/19 – Won by an Irish-based stable
9/19 – Favourites that won
8/19 – Placed horses that came from stall 2
6/19 – Winning distance – ½ length or less
5/19 – Returned 20/1 or bigger
5/19 – Trained by Jim Bolger
6/19 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (6 wins in total)
5/19 – Ridden by Kevin Manning
5/19 – Finished in the top 2 in the 2000 Guineas the following season
2/19 – Won the Epsom Derby the following season
1/19 – Winners that came from stall 1
The Irish have won 11 of the last 15 runnings
3 of the last 11 winners came from stall 3
Aidan O’Brien has trained 4 of the last 6 winners

RACING AHEAD VERDICT: Always a big pointer race to the 2000 Guineas next season. It was hard to not be taken by the way the Ger Lyons-trained Straight Answer has won his two starts to date. The last of those was a tidy 5 ½ length success at Fairyhouse last month over 6f, so the extra furlong here should be within range. He’s also performed well on quick and soft ground. Aidan O’Brien has won 4 of the last six runnings too, so their Glounthaune must enter the mix. This juvenile did nothing wrong when winning on debut at the Curragh back in April, but it would be a slight concern that we’ve not seen him since. Bayside Boy battled on well to win the G2 Champagne Stakes at Doncaster last time out and can go well again, Dhabab and Berkshire Shadow have had decent starts to their careers and have place claims with a bit more improvement. But the clear form pick here is the Godolphin runner – NATIVE TRAIL, who is yet to taste defeat from three starts. He was last seen winning the G1 National Stakes in Ireland by an easy 3 ½ lengths and before that was the winner of the G2 Superlative Stakes at HQ. This 7f suits and with more improvement on the cards then it might take a good one to stop him – William Buick rides.  

3.35 – Together For Racing International Cesarewitch Stakes (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 2m2f ITV

18/19 – Aged 4 or older
15/19 – Had won over at least 1m6f on the flat before
15/19 – Had run within the last 2 months
15/19 – Carried 9-2 or less
14/19 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
13/19 – Finished 4th or better last time out
13/19 – Aged 5 or older
12/19 – Had won over at least 2m on the flat before
11/19 – Had 3 or more previous flat runs that season
11/19 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
10/19 – Drawn in stall 13 or lower
10/19 – Had run at the track before
10/19 – Won by a NH trainer
9/19 – Had won 4 or more times on the flat before
9/19 – The first three home ALL returned a double-figure price
9/19 – Placed favourites
8/19 – Ran at either Ascot, Chester or Doncaster last time out
5/19 – Winning mares
4/19 – Winning favourites
3/19 – Winners from stall 1
3/19 – Ridden by Silvestre De Sousa
3/19 – Trained by Willie Mullins (last 3 winners)
3/19 – Won last time out
2/19 – Trained by Mark Johnston
2/19 – Trained by Brian Meehan
2/19 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/19 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
The average winning SP in the last 19 years is 21/1
Just 4 winning favourites since 1993

RACING AHEAD VERDICT: As always, a big field head to post here – 34 runners – so it’s a bookies dream race. Last year we saw the Willie Mullins-trained Great White Shark win the race by an easy 3 lengths and is back for more this year – he’ll be looking to become the first ever back-to-back winner of the race! The Willie Mullins camp have, in fact, landed the last three runnings of the race and are once again mob-handed with six runners – Foveros, Great White Shark, Burning Victory, M C Muldoon, Whiskey Sour and Micro Manage. Mullins has also managed to booked Ryan Moore to ride M C Muldoon and William Buick for Burning Victory. We’ve also another past winner in the race – Withhold (2017) – running and he’s holding his form well at the age of 8 to have a say and his owner Tony Bloom has also won this race since with Stratum (2019) This Roger Charlton runner is, however, rated a massive 20lbs higher this time than when winning the race four years ago and with top-weight of 9-10 that won’t be easy. The trends suggest to look for horses aged 5 or older, that are carrying 9-2 or less in weight, that finished in the top four last time out and are drawn 13 or lower. With all those in mind, the Nicky Henderson-trained BUZZ looks interesting. Yes, he’s likely to be one of the well-fancied runners, especially with Oisin Murphy riding and coming from the Henderson yard that won this race in 2008 and 2003. He was last seen running second in the G1 Aintree Hurdle in April but returns to the flat on a fair mark. He’ll have no issues with the trip, while draw 6 looks perfect for this 7 year-old too. Of those at bigger prices, the likes of Goobinator and Elysian Flame are interesting and it’s hard to ignore last year’s winner – GREAT WHITE SHARK – despite being rated 10lbs higher this time. He kept on well to win by 3 lengths 12 months ago and in actual racing weight only has 7lbs more to carry this time. Yes, no horse has ever won this race back-to-back, but he’s been lightly-raced since (2 runs) and we know the track suits. Of the other Mullins runners a chance is also taken on MICRO MANAGE (e/w), who has a nice draw in 7 and won going away last time over 1m6f at Galway. This is another step up, but he’s won three of his 6 starts on the flat and could have more to come over this longer trip – Colin Keane rides. Platform Nineteen, Calling The Wind and Just Hubert are others to note, but of those at much bigger prices the final pick is RAJINSKY (e/w), who won very well at Ascot recently. He’s up 5ls for that, but landed that race by an easy 4 lengths. Yes, he was well beaten in the race last season, but was drawn 30 that day so didn’t get the best of runs round. He’s in stall 9 this time and clearly comes here in better heart after that nice win at Ascot recently – he might be worth having a small e/w interest in at a big price.

York Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)

2.02 – Coral Beaten-By-A-Length Free Bet Rockingham Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 6f ITV

18/18 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
17/18 – Had won between 1 and 3 times before
15/18 – Foaled in March or later
15/18 – Had 4 or more runs that season
14/18 – Had never raced at York before
13/18 – Had won over 6f before
12/18 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
12/18 – Winning distance – 1 ¼ lengths or more
10/18 – Placed favourites
10/18 – Unplaced last time out
8/18 – Ran at either Redcar (6) or Newbury (2) last time out
5/18 – Won last time out
5/18 – Winning favourites
4/18 – Winners from stall 2
4/18 – Filly winners
3/18 – Placed horses from stall 1
3/18 – Trained by Tim Easterby
3/18 – Ridden by David Allen
The  horse from stall 6 has won 5 of the last 11 runnings

RACING AHEAD VERDICT: The horse from stall 6 has won 5 of the last 11 renewals, so Cashew will be looking to uphold that stat. Canonized has been knocking on the door in recent runs, but has become a hard horse to win with of late and all three career wins have so far come over 5f. Hellomydarlin is another that’s got the form to go well – wasn’t far behind Canonized last time at Ayr, while the likes of Gisburn, Witch Hunter and Breeze Easy are others to respect. But the safe call here might be to side with the only CD winner in the field – EVER GIVEN. This Tom Dascombe runner was a neck winner here two runs back and wasn’t disgraced in the valuable sales race at Doncaster (2nd) last time. That came over 6 ½ furlongs so the drop back to 6f is a plus and so far with 4 wins from his 7 career starts we know he likes to get his head in front. Of the lesser exposed runners Esken Rose, Laheg and Sandbeck could improve again, but the danger can come from the Richard Hannon runner – WITCH HUNTER (e/w). He’s run well in his two runs to date (2nd and 3rd) despite not winning, but also didn’t get a clear run last time so actually did well to only go down ½ a length. With better luck in-running can go well.

2.37 – Play Coral Racing-Super-Series For Free Handicap Cl2 1m2f88y ITV

Just 8 previous runnings
8/8 – Rated between 95-103
7/8 –  Returned 10/1 or shorter
7/8 – Won over at least 1m2f before
6/8  – Aged 3 years-old
6/8 – Didn’t win last time out
6/8 – Ran in the last 5 weeks
5/8 – Carried 9-0 or more
5/8 – Unplaced last time out
4/8 – Had run at the track before
4/8 – Ridden by Franny Norton (2) or Adam Kirby (2)
4/7 – Irish bred
1/8 – Winning favourites
2 of the last 5 winners came from stall 8

The average winning SP in the last 7 runnings is 8/1

RACING AHEAD VERDICT: A tricky handicap here to unravel, but with 6 of the last 8 winners aged 3 years-old, then this looks a good place to focus. Of the 11 runners – Pythagoras, Akmaam, Aleas and Bay Bridge fit that age stat. It’s also a race that jockey Adam Kirby has done well in – winning two of the last six – he rides Sinjaari for trainer Roger Charlton. This 5 year-old falls down on the age trend, but does come here in fine form after close seconds at York and Doncaster. He’s a proven CD winner too – the only one in the field – and even though he’s been a bit frustrating in terms of winning, he rarely runs a back race. The call though is to stick with the in-form Stoute runner – BAY BRIDGE – who has won his last two. He’s taken those races by 5l and 4l so clearly has more to come and despite being up a big-looking 15lbs in the ratings can continue his upward curve. Of the rest, the Gosden runner – Faisal – will be popular with Hollie Doyle riding, while if you wanted one at a bigger price – AKMAAM (e/w) – could be interesting. Lightly raced but has been gelded since his last run and is also up in trip here. Yes, his form has been average but was thought good enough to run in a G3 just two runs ago so could easily leave recent form behind now he’s gelded and upped in distance.

3.15 – Coral Sprint Trophy Handicap (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 6f ITV

18/18 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
18/18 – Had won at least 3 races before
17/18 – Had run at York before
17/18 – Had won a race over 6f before
16/18 – Had raced 6 or more times that season
13/18 – Aged 5 or younger
13/18 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
10/18 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
10/18 – Unplaced favourites
10/18 – Winning distance – ¾ lengths or less
9/18 – Rated between 92 and 98
9/18 – Carried 9-1 or less
8/18 – Drawn in a double-figure stall
5/18 – Raced at Ascot last time out
4/18 – Won last time out
3/18 – Trained by David O’Meara
2/18 – Winning favourites
2/18 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/18 – Trained by Kevin Ryan (2 of the last 4 winners)
2/18 – Trained by Michael Dods
1/18 – Filly or mare winners
4 of the last 12 winners were ridden by a claiming apprentice
Gulliver (16/1) won the race in 2019 and 2020
Major Jumbo (12/1) won the race in 2018
Teruntum Star (10/1) won the race in 2017

RACING AHEAD VERDICT: The O’Meara-trained GULLIVER (e/w) has won this race in 2019 and 2020 so it’s hard to ignore his chance again. He’s not getting any younger at 7, but has held his form well this season despite not winning. He’s back to the winning mark of last year too and can go well again. The only niggle is that he’s been drawn low for both his wins in the race, but is now having to complete the three-timer from stall 21. MAGICAL SPIRIT (e/w) was fourth in the race 12 months ago too and is another to have onside as he’s rated 5lbs lower this time. He was a recent fourth in the Ayr Silver Cup behind Staxton and before beaten just a head to Tis Marvellous, who has since franked the form, while his trainer – Kevin Ryan, has won 2 of the last 4 runnings. In form runners- Nomadic Way and Capote’s Dream are both CD winners and are both on three-timers. You can certainly make cases for many more – including Mondammej, Verhoyen, Rathbone, Mr Wagyu, Laugh A Minute, Commanche Falls and Copper Knight, but the other of interest for me is STRIKE RED (e/w). The Richard Fahey team have a fair record in the race and this 3 year-old comes here in form after a close second at Ascot. Yes, he was 5l behind Staxton at Ayr in the Silver Cup in September, but is only 6lbs higher than when winning at Newcastle last month and jockey Billy Garritty helps on that score by taking off a handy 3lbs.

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