The big races this month are coming at us thick and fast as we've also got the Ladbrokes Trophy Chase at Newbury on Saturday, November 28.
Okay, to the slightly older readers out there – the Ladbrokes Trophy Chase – will always be known as ‘The Hennessy' and I'm probably in that camp too – sorry Ladbrokes! As we tick towards 2021, you can get an early look at how things are shaping up for betting on Royal Ascot here.
Run at Newbury racecourse, over 3m 2 1/2f, the Ladbrokes Trophy Chase is a race that gives National Hunt fans the chance to see some of the best longer distance chasers pit their wits against horses of varied abilities, being that it's also a handicap.
In recent times we've seen the great Denman power to victory twice (2007 and 2009), while former Grand National hero, Many Clouds, plus
Cheltenham Gold Cup winners, Bobs Worth and Native River, are other big names on the ‘hall-of-fame' since the turn of the century.
Twelve months ago, the Emma Lavelle-trained De Rasher Counter gave jockey Ben Jones is biggest winner to-date – he became the fourth 7-year-old to win the race in the last ten years and could be back for more in 2020.
It's also a race the powerful Colin Tizzard and Nicky Henderson yards have done well in recently – they've landed the prize twice each in the last eight years.
The good news is that there are many other key trends to take into the race – let's take a look.
Age – As mentioned, we saw a 7 -ear-old winner of the race in 2019 and that age have won 40% of the last ten runnings. But the wider age trend suggests looking at horses aged 8 or younger as this has applied to 16 of the last 18 renewals (89%). We had a 10 year-old winner – Sizing Tennessee – win in 2018, but he was the first double-figure aged winner since 1981 – while since 1961, the race has only produced four winners aged 10 or older!
Recent Run and Form – With 10 of the last 18 winners having won their last race this is a fairly good trend to have on side, while this can be taken a bit further with 13 of the last 18 (72%) of recent winners finishing in the top three in their last outing. Horses that have had the benefit of a recent run have also fared best – 12 of the last 18 winners fitted that stat.
Past Wins – The key trend to note here is that 16 of the last 18 winners had won between 2 and 5 times over fences before. This suggests we are looking for horses with a certain degree of experience but are not fully exposed to the handicapper. This was again backed up in 2019 with De Rasher Counter having won just twice over fences before heading to Newbury.
Betting Guide and Market Leaders – Considering we normally get a big field, the favourites don't do too badly. In the last 18 runnings, we've seen 6 winning market leaders (33%), but it's worth pointing out we've also had 10 unplaced jollies in that same period. This indicates the favourites tend to win or bomb-out totally!
Weight – Being a handicap race, then weight carried, and a horse's current rating are certainly worth taking into account. 12 of the last 18 winners were officially rated between 140 and 151 – another tick for last year's winner, who was rated 149 at the time. With 13 of the last 18 winners (72%) carrying 10st 13lbs or more in weight then around this point looks to be the best weight cut-off point.
Course Form – Newbury is classed as one of the more premier tracks and even though its fences take some jumping it's a fairly flat course. But having experience of the Berkshire venue seems to have helped past winners as 13 of the last 18 winners of this race had run at Newbury in the past, with 9 of those winning there over fences too! Looking back to the 2019, this was again another big plus for the winner, as he'd won a Novice Handicap Chase at Newbury the season before.
Top Trainers – Since 2016, the Colin Tizzard yard have won this race twice, while the powerful Nicky Henderson team have two wins in the last eight runnings and three victories in total. With Willie Mullins sending over Total Recall to win in 2017 and Paul Nicholls, who actually rode the winner of this race in 1986 and 1987, having three Ladbrokes Trophy Chases to his name – then the cream often rises to the top with regards to the trainers. Other notably stables that have taken the race in recent times are Alan King, David Pipe and Oliver Sherwood, while Emma Lavelle was responsible for last year's winner. Anything from these handlers should be respected.
At the time of writing it's obviously hard to call who'll be heading to the race, but names like Topofthegame (Paul Nicholls), Champ (Henderson) and Copperhead (Tizzard) are possible from some of the big yards mentioned, while if the 2019 winner – De Rasher Counter – turns up again he'll be looking to become the first back-to-back winner of the race since the mighty Arkle did the double in 1964 and 65!
Recent Ladbrokes Trophy Chase Winners
2019 – DE RASHER COUNTER (12/1)
2018 – SIZING TENNESSEE (12/1)
2017 – TOTAL RECALL (9/2 fav)
2016 – NATIVE RIVER (7/2 fav)
2015 – SMAD PLACE (7/1)
2014 – MANY CLOUDS (8/1)
2013 – TRIOLO D'ALENE (20/1)
2012 – BOBS WORTH (4/1 fav)
2011 – CARRUTHERS (10/1)
2010 – DIAMOND HARRY (6/1)
2009 – DENMAN (11/4 fav)
2008 – MADISON du BERLAIS (25/1)
2007 – DENMAN (5/1)
Key Ladbrokes Trophy Chase Betting Trends
16/18 – Aged 8 or younger
16/18 – Had won between 2-5 previous races over fences
16/18 – Had won chase over at least 3m
15/18 – Returned 12/1 or shorter
13/18 – Finished in the first 3 last time
13/18 – Carried 10-13 or more
13/18 – Had run at Newbury before (9 had won over fences there)
12/18 – Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or more
12/18 – Aged either 6 or 7 years-old
12/18 – Had won a Grade 3 or better class chase race before
12/18 – Rated between 140 and 151
ANDY NEWMAN
