There are few things as disappointing to racing fans as seeing a great horse not fulfilling its potential. We can cite various examples from down the years: From Douvan to Queen's Logic, Kneller to Gloria Victus, every yard will have at least one name about whom connections will wonder what might have been.
Might Incentivise meet that category? Not yet, thankfully. He's already been dubbed a wonder horse in Australia. And with big Group 1 wins like the 2021 Caulfield Cup and Turnbull Stakes, he has already earned over £3 million.
The only blot on the copybook of Incentivise was his 2nd place finish in the 2021 Melbourne Cup. That was hardly a failure, however. If you look at Melbourne Cup race details from down the years, you'll know it's not always kind to favourites.
High expectations led to disappointment
And yet, Incentivise was a huge favourite, with an SP of around 7/4 (that's a short price for the race that stops a nation). The Melbourne Cup was supposed to be the crowning of his miraculous season as a 5-year-old. He was beaten out by the brilliant mare, Verry Elleegant. No shame, as we said, but there was still disappointment.
Incentivise suffered injuries during that race, although connections hinted that they were also due to a culmination of a brutal schedule. Nonetheless, he was found to have an injured cannon bone and damage to both suspensory ligaments. A couple of weeks ago, his former trainer and breeder, Steve Tregea, rated him as 50/50 to recover fully and regain his best form. Tregea relinquished his share of ownership in Incentivise earlier this year.
Nonetheless, Incentivise is the current ante-post favourite for the 2022 Melbourne Cup, W.S. Cox Plate and Caulfield Cup. Three of Australia's – the world's – most important races, and the market leader has several injury concerns and rated 50-50 to get back to his best. Anyone who has backed him will surely be losing a bit of sleep given the doubts hanging over Incentivise.
Reasons to be optimistic for 2022
Now, there are some caveats. First of all, it's March, so we are a long way off from Australia's spring carnival season, which sees the Melbourne Cup, Cox Plate and Caulfield Cup held in October and November. Second, there has been some positive news over the health of Incentivise in recent days. The mood in his camp has been somewhat brighter, if not wholly confident.
And it's worth bearing in mind that Incentivise is not short odds in any of these markets – somewhere around 9/1-12/1, depending on the bookmaker and race. Indeed, given the action in Australia's busy autumn carnival season right now, the ante-post markets will likely change. In short, there is a sense that Incentivise is the market leader in those three races simply by way of the fact someone had to be. Whether he recovers fully or not, you'd expect things to look a lot different in September when Australia's spring season begins in earnest.
So, is this flawed favourite a good bet or not? Every punter will have been here before. In a sense, you are taking a punt on the unknown, i.e., to what extent those injuries have healed and what kind of rustiness Incentivise will have. For our money, we'd prefer to see him in action again before we parted with any money. Of course, if he blows the doors off on his return, you'll miss out on the big odds available now. Alas, that's the Catch-22 of ante-post betting.
