Free TV Tips and Trends: Sunday 16th Aug 2020

This Sunday, the ITV cameras head to Newbury and Ripon to take in seven races across the two venues.

At Newbury the Listed St Hugh Fillies’ Stakes (3.35) is their main draw, while up at Ripon it’s their Great St Wilfrid day.

We’ve got the LIVE races covered from
a trends angle, plus our free horse racing tips.

NEWBURY HORSE RACING TRENDS

1:50 – Unibet Extra Places Every Day Handicap Cl4 (3yo+ 0-85) 1m ITV4

5 previous runnings
5/5 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
5/5 – Returned 9/1 or bigger in the betting
5/5 – Carried 8-13 or less in weight
3/5 – Winners from stalls 3 or lower
2/5 – Winners from stall 3
0/5 – Winning favourites
Trainer Eve Johnson Houghton won this race in 2019

BEST BETS: CONFIDE & RISK TAKER
DANGER: WILFY

2:25 – Unibet 3 Uniboosts A Day Handicap Cl3 (3yo+ 0-95) 7f ITV4

10/10 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
9/10 – Aged 5 or younger
8/10 – Carried 9-1 or more in weight
2/10 – Trained by William Haggas
1/10 – Winning favourites

BEST BETS: DANYAH & MOTTRIB
DANGER: RIVER NYMPH

3:00 – Unibet You’re On Handicap Cl3 (3yo+ 0-90) 1m5½f ITV4

10/10 – Aged 5 or younger
9/10 – Carried 9-0 or more in weight
8/10 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting  
8/10 – Drawn in stalls 7 or lower
3/10 – Winning favourites
Emenem won this race in 2019

BEST BETS: SPACE WALK & FRONTPIECE
DANGER: ENHANCED

3:35 – Unibet St Hugh’s Fillies’ Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (2yo) 5f ITV4

9/10 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
9/10 – Drawn in stall 7 or lower
5/10 – Drawn in stalls 1 or 2
2/10 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
3/10 – Winning favourites
Trainer Archie Watson won this race in 2018

BEST BETS: COUNTRY CARNIVAL & MISS JINGLES  
DANGER: BLACKBERRY

RIPON HORSE RACING TRENDS

2:05 – williamhill.com Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap Cl3 (3yo+ 0-90) 1m ITV4

10/10 – Carried 9-3 or more in weight
9/10 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
8/10 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
8/10 – Winners from stall 7 or lower
5/10 – Winning favourites
4/10 – Trained by David O’Meara (4 of the last 7)
2/10 – Trained by Tim Easterby
2/10 – Ridden by Danny Tudhope
Hortzador won this race in 2019

BEST BETS: HORTZADAR & YOUNG FIRE
DANGER: GARDEN OASIS

2:40 – William Hill Ripon Hornblower Conditions Stakes (Plus 10 Race) Cl2 (2yo) 6f ITV4

10/10 – Drawn in stalls 5 or lower
9/10 – Returned 3/1 or shorter in the betting
6/10 – Winning favourites
5/10 – Drawn in stall 1
3/10 – Trained by Richard Fahey
3/10 – Trained by Ann Duffield
2/10 – Ridden by Tony Hamilton

BEST BET: RED FASCINATOR

3:15 – William Hill Great St Wilfrid Handicap Cl2 (3yo+) 6f ITV4

16/18 – Previous winners over 6f
14/18 – Didn’t win last time out
14/18 – Aged between 4-6 years-old
13/18 – Carried 8-12 or more
12/18 – Winning distance of 1 length or less
12/18 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
11/18 – Finished unplaced last time out
10/18 – Unplaced favourites
10/18  – Had run at Ripon before (3 won)
9/18 – Had 5 or more previous runs already that season
7/18 – Ran at either Goodwood (4) or Newmarket (3) last time out
6/18 – Aged 4 years-old
5/18 – Winning favourites (4 in the last 7 years)
3/18 – Trained by David O’Meara (3 of last 9)
3/18 – Ridden by Daniel Tudhope
2/18 – Trained by Richard Fahey (2 of last 7)
1/18 – Aged 3 years-old
Dakota Gold (5/1 fav) won the race in 2019
Gunmetal won the race in 2018
No winner from stall 1 in the last 14 runnings
8 of the last 14 winners came from stalls 8-13 (inc)
Only 6 winning favourites since 1990
Since 1986 ALL bar one winner returned 20/1 or less
The average winning SP in the last 18 runnings is 11/1

A super-competitive renewal of this decent handicap and we’ve also got the last two winners in the field again. Gunmetal took this prize in 2018, while Dakota Gold won the race in 2019. The last-named will be looking to become the first back-to-back winner since Pepper Lane (2011/12), but it won’t be easy off top-weight and is also rated 8lbs higher this time. He’s been running in better races than this though and is clearly a better horse, but it’s still a lot of weight to carry. We’ve also got last year’s fifth – SAXTON (e/w) – in the race and he looks interesting. He’s 11lbs lower than last year and also heads here off the back of a return to form when winning over this course and distance recently. He’s only up 4lbs for that but is clearly in good heart at the moment and with the front two pulling 2 ¼ lengths clear of the third that day the form looks good – he could still be well-handicapped on old form. MOTOGALLY was another that won well last time out, when beating Chil Chil at Bath and the form of that race has been given a boast with the runner-up winning well last weekend – he looks an improving sprinter and is another to have onside. The consistent Kimifive and Golden Apollo are others to consider, while it’s hard to ignore the 2018 winner – GUNMETAL – too as he heads here running off a 10lb lower rating than 2 years ago and also has jockey Ray Dawson claiming a handy 5lbs.