Andy Newton

Northumberland Plate Trends To Help Find Saturday’s Newcastle Winner

by
Andy Newton
25 June 2026

While June is usually dominated by the heavy hitting meetings at Epsom and Royal Ascot, the Northumberland Plate at the very end of the month gives this gruelling two-mile staying contest some well-deserved breathing room in the spotlight.

Oh, and just a quick reminder before I dive in – this 2m 1/2f race is still run on the All-Weather surface at Newcastle racecourse.

The Northumberland Plate remains one of the richest staying handicaps on the calendar-just ask the connections of last year’s winner, Spirit Mixer, who pocketed a tidy £81k.

For the traditionalists among us, you’ll likely still hear it called the ‘Pitmen’s Derby.’

That nickname harks back to the days when it was held on a Wednesday holiday for local miners; while that tradition ended in 1949, the race has been a Saturday staple since 1952.

The 2025 hero, Spirit Mixer, won in the well-known Jeff Smith purple silks – rewarding backers a tasty 25/1 and holding off Dancing In Paris in a ding-dong finish by a neck.

Which was actually his THIRD run in the race – having been runner-up in 2022 to Trueshan and 9th in 2024.

It’s a race also steeped in history, dating all the way back to 1833- therefore, a goldmine for those of us who love a good set of trends.

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WATCH: Spirit Mixer Winning The 2025 Northumberland Plate

Northumberland Plate Trends and Stats 📈

23/24 – Had won over at least 1m4f before on the flat
23/24 – Finished fifth or better last time out
20/24 – Came from stall 14 or lower
20/24 – Finished in the top three in their previous race
19/24 – Aged 6 or younger
18/24 – Had won over at least 1m6f before on the flat
14/24 – Carried 8-12 or less
14/24 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
11/24 – Had at least 2 turf flat runs already that season
8/24 – Won by a National Hunt yard
7/24 – Won their previous race
6/24 – Winning favourites (5 of the last 14)
5/24 – Had won on the flat at Newcastle before
3/24 – Ran at Haydock last time out (inc 3 of the last 17 winners)
2/24 – Trained by Donald McCain
2/24 – Trained by Alan King (2 of the last 7)
2/24 – Trained by the Charlton yard (2 of last 11)
1/24 – Won by a previous winner of the raceNote: From 2016 the Northumberland Plate was staged on the All Weather track at Newcastle (moved from the turf)

Other Northumberland Plate Facts 📜

Just 1 horse older than 8 has won the race since 1985 (2021, Nicholas T (9))
Six of the last 20 winners ran at either Ascot or Haydock last time out
6 of the last 11 winners have carried between 9st and 9st 9lbs.
11 winning favourites (1 joint) since 1985, including 5 of the last 14

Northumberland Plate Trends In More Detail

Northumberland Plate Trends

The Jumps Connection 🦘

Because this is a true test of stamina over two miles, it’s no surprise that National Hunt trainers love to target the prize.

Big names like Alan King (2019), Jonjo O’Neill (2013), and Donald McCain (2010 & 2012) have all raided the Plate in recent years.

Even the 2024 winning trainer, Brian Ellison, is a master at balancing both codes.

But last year Andrew Balding flew the flat for the flat boys, when winning the race for the first time in his career.

Key Performance Trends 📊

In 2022, we saw the sheer class of Trueshan as he defied a massive 10st 8lbs to win, while 2021 gave us Nicholas T, who showed age is just a number by winning as a nine-year-old.

However, things have settled back into a pattern lately, with the last three winners all falling in the 6-to-7-year-old bracket.

If Spirit Mixer returns in 2026, he’ll be chasing history; we haven’t seen a ‘back-to-back’ winner since Tug Of War in the late 70s (though Tominator deserves a nod for his non-consecutive wins in 2011 and 2013).

To help you narrow down the field, here are the vital statistics from the last 24 renewals:

Weight 🏋️

Onesmoothoperator carried a modest 8st 9lbs in 2024 and last year Spirit Mixer had just a pound more with 8st 10lbs.

Historically, 58% of winners carried 8st 12lbs or less, and since 1985, only five horses have carried 9st 6lbs or more.

A word of caution, though: the tide might be turning. Seven of the last 11 winners carried between 9st 1lb or more.

Recent Form 🗒️

This is a big one.

23 of the last 24 winners finished in the top five in their previous outing.

Plus, if you want to be even more clinical, 20 of those 24 finished in the top three last time out.

Our 2025 winner ticked this box perfectly, having finished second at Goodwood 20 days prior to landing the Northumberland Plate.

Stamina & Surface 💪

Proven staying power is non-negotiable.

22 of the last 23 winners had previously won over at least 1m 4f.

Ideally, you want a horse with winning form over 1m 6f to 2m, and even better if they’ve already handled the Newcastle tapeta.

As last year’s winner Spirit Mixer was 9^th in the race the previous season.

Age 🎂

While we saw a seven-year-old win in 2023, the sweet spot is younger.

19 of the last 24 winners were aged six or under. Since 1985, Nicholas T is the only horse aged nine or older to find the winner’s enclosure.

Stick with the 4-to-7 age bracket for the safest bet—that covers the bulk of the winners over the last two decades – with Spirit Mixer aged 7.

The Draw ✍️

You might think the draw doesn’t matter much over two miles, but the numbers say otherwise.

20 of the last 24 winners came from stall 14 or lower. In a field of 20+, that’s a very helpful way to cross a few names off your list.

The Market 💷

Favorites used to struggle here, but they’ve improved lately with six winning market leaders since 2007.

With the most recent Trueshan in 2022 – who won as the 3/1 jolly.

Still, there’s value to be found—the average winning price is 13/1, and 14 of the last 24 winners returned at double-figure odds.

Stables to Watch 🏇

Richard Hughes got his first taste of Plate glory in 2023, as did Andrew Balding last season, and the Charlton camp (now led by Harry) is always dangerous with two wins in the last decade.

Alan King and Donald McCain are perennial threats, but the trophy has been spread across several yards recently – including Hugo Palmer, Charlie Appleby, and James Fanshawe.

The Summary 🕵️‍♂️

If you’re looking for the “trends” horse, focus on those aged six or younger who finished in the top three last time out and have proven form over 1m 4f+.

Keep a close eye on the favorite, too; a 25% strike rate in a 20-runner field is nothing to be sniffed at.

This year’s Northumberland Plate favourite looks set to be the Richard Hughes-trained CIRCUS OF ROME.

While there are only TWO horses aged 6 or younger, that finished in the top three last time out – Synergism and Ride Of Thunder.

Good luck!