JANGO IS THE GOLDEN SHOT: Cheltenham Day Four – Ben Morgan is backing the Baie for the Blue Riband

Cheltenham Day Four

Ben Morgan looks at all the races on day four of the Cheltenham Festival, featuring the Gold Cup and the Triumph Hurdle.

Triumph Hurdle

Regular readers will know I am not known for getting carried away with juveniles, especially short priced ones, but every now and then you have to concede that one might just be too good for the others and should be backed regardless.

That might be the case with NAR-CISO HAS who has improved no end from his first run for Willie Mullins when beaten by Mange Tout.

Visually he looked a lot better on his second start at Leopardstown and then confirmed that improvement when beating Mange Tout at the DRF.

Mullins has said he will be better suited again to a stamina test which is what the Triumph will provide and with that in mind whilst looking at the lack of likely competitors he looks like a good thing to me at 7/4.

Selma De Vary got the closest to him at Leopardstown last time out but did look an awkward ride at the same time. He seemed to run past beaten horses whilst the selection had already won the race so I would question that form slightly.

Supreme entry

Proactif also hails from the same stable as the aforementioned two but interestingly enough is also owned by JP McManus like the selection.

He does hold an entry in the Supreme however which might be an interesting angle into what connections think of Narciso Has.

Mange Tout might prefer the Cheltenham hill but does have a few lengths to find with the favourite whilst Charme De Faust may also take in the Mares Novice race instead given her trainer’s apparent strength in depth here.

The British side is led by Maestro Conti who quickened up nicely the last day when given a confident ride by Harry Skelton. I think he will have to step forward again from that to feature here but it is possible.

1) Narciso Has

2) Proactif

3) Maestro Conti

County Hurdle

As earlier mentioned I do have Murcia on my radar for the Festival after an eye catching run last time out.

I personally think she will be better suited to the Coral Cup as the extra distance will bring her stamina into play but she has been supported into favouritism in the ante post markets for this race so watch this space.

Her stablemate, Kargese, followed a very similar path to her when she took this race 12 months ago so I understand the support.

Mullins domination

As ever Willie Mullins will have a host of horses lined up for a race which he dominated last year with ROC DINO and Le Divin Enfant being top of the shortlist. The latter needs another run to qualify for this and time is running out as this goes to post so it’s the former who I am going to side with.

A tidy hurdler in France, he has reappeared in Ireland this year and had the misfortune/fortune of bumping into two of the best novices in Ireland.

Beat out of sight by Mighty Park on stable debut, he duly came on for the run to finish runner up behind El Cairos last time out.

Bet of the week

An Irish handicap rating of 124 looks incredibly lenient and I will watch carefully to see how the British handicapper reacts with this race in mind. Anything sub 135 and I think this fellow could be one of the handicap bets of the week.

Of the rest, it appears I Started A Joke is primed to run a big race in whichever race he lines up in. This would be the most obvious race given he has only ran at 2 miles so far and he would need plenty of respect for top connections.

Puturhandstogether was a good winner of the Fred Winter here last year but hasn’t quite kicked on from there yet. Again with top connections being involved, this may have been a target for quite some time and any market moves would be interesting.

Alexei for the Joe Tizzard team makes the shortlist after a couple of devastating displays in handicap company this season already.

He would have to be a player if allowed to take his chance and similar comments apply to Bowensonfire who seemingly keeps on improving.

1) Roc Dino

2) Murcia

3) Bowensonfire

Mares Chase

Dinoblue is likely to be a warm order for this given her dominant success here last year and her recent successes this year suggest she returns in similar form.

Despite a heavy ground victory last time out, it would appear she is a much better horse on good ground so it will definitely be worth waiting to see what the ground does before you go wading in at 6/4.

She certainly won’t have it her own way if stablemate Spindleberry lines up as she would be one of the classiest mares she has faced in recent times.

She has quietly gone about her business throughout the last 12 months and earned herself a decent rating. Although pulled up last time out in the Irish Gold Cup, the calmer waters here may see her return to her best.

These two would be the form horses to go with but I do think KALA CONTI could have plenty to offer at around 12/1 mark despite only being a novice.

Smart recruit

She looked a smart recruit to the chasing ranks when winning two events earlier in the season and although she was slightly disappointing at Sandown, it was a strong and messy race so I wouldn’t be overly harsh on her there.

I think she will appreciate this trip and racing against her own sex which makes her a sound each way play.

Jade De Grugy hasn’t convinced so far this season over fences whilst July Flower looks to be Arkle bound. The Big Westerner is an unlikely runner I think but British trained pair Panic Attack and Diva Luna look more likely participants and could place at decent prices.

1) Kala Conti

2) Dinoblue

3) Panic Attack

Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle

Normally a race for the plodders, often nicknamed the ‘potato race’, the Albert Bartlett divides opinion.

It proves to be a tough puzzle to solve every year but this year, I feel, has a likeness to one of the better renew als of this race which was run in 2020.

Monkfish prevailed for Willie Mullins, denying Latest Exhibition for Paul Nolan in a thrilling finish. There comes the likeness as Nolan and Mullins look set to do battle again this year.

Surprising improvement

Doctor Steinberg is the current favourite and he has supposedly surprised the Mullins stable all year with how much he has improved. Stamina is his forte and his recent victory at DRF was impressive given how keen he was early on.

The endless reserves of stamina will certainly be needed here but he won’t be able to get away with being so enthusiastic as market principle THEDEVILUNO looks to possess a heap of ability.

Now if this race is known as the ‘Potato race’, I don’t know what that makes the River Don at Doncaster as to me that race is always a slow motion, gruelling finish where very often the best horse doesn’t win.

It had a different feel about it this year though as Paul Nolan’s horse was the first horse I’ve seen to win this race in the manner of a very good horse.

Held up, he travelled smoothly and barely came off the bridle to storm away from what I thought was a good field. His earlier form is rock solid and he does look like a good one which Nolan believes he is.

Likely type

Away from the top two in the market, Sortudo looks a likely type and so does Kazansky. Both staying chasers for the future for sure but have shown enough over hurdles to suggest they play a part here. They do however lack that touch of class which the top two possess.

Klimt Madrik and Moneygarrow catch my eye from the home side and the former likes to be ridden cold which could suit here. He has proven he can hold his own in this grade also so could run into a place for Toby Lawes.

1) Thedeviluno

2) Doctor Steinberg

3) Klimt Madrik

Cheltenham Gold Cup

As mentioned previously, it looks likely that Fact To File’s supplementary fee will be coughed up given the manner of his Leopardstown success and he probably is a worthy favourite on the back of that.

However, it is worth remembering how disappointing he was at Kempton the run before, a course where he looked sure to excel.

With that in the back of punters’ minds I don’t think he will go off too short here which makes for a competitive market.

King George winner

King George winner, The Jukebox Man, faces a new challenge again but he and his story just keep on getting better.

I am not sure how much he had left at Kempton as he will need a bit more here although he may appreciate the nature of this track so could actually improve again. A big player and a likely pace angle.

The fact I am now only mentioning Galopin Des Champs rather than at the top of the piece tells you we have a deep renewal of the race as this two time champ bids to regain his crown.

On the face of it, he looks to have his best days behind him after two sub standard runs at his favourite Leopardstown this season but I noticed a steely determination in Willie Mullins’ eye when he said this lad won’t be far away at Cheltenham and it’s that sort of determination you have to take note of. Dismiss him at your peril.

Classy performer

The ground is going to play a big part for sure and if it came up soft Haiti Couleurs would surely go off much shorter than he is now. He has developed into a real classy performer and now has two Nationals under his belt along with a Denman Chase.

There are a lot of comparisons to Native River and the likeness is obvious but he will need to step up again here if he is to achieve what that horse did.

Last year’s winner, Inothewayurthinkin, has suffered a huge fall from grace this year and would almost be unbackable on the face of his form this year but I remind readers of horses like Lord Windemere who tend to turn up for one day a year and that tends to be at Cheltenham.

Having gone through this race a good few times in my head, the one horse I keep coming back to is JANGO BAIE.

Arkle champion

It wouldn’t be too often where I select the current Arkle champion as my Gold Cup bet but such is the quirkiness of his career achievements to date.

He won a stamina sapping Arkle last year which gave connections no other option but to step him up in trip and since then he has even looked to find 3m around Kempton too sharp.

Jango Baie ridden by Nico de Boinville (right)

This galloping test looks sure to bring out the best in him, which I don’t think we have seen yet, and his overall profile has a look of steady progression to it which I like.

Nicky Henderson is a smart man and I can’t help but feel this horse’s career has been all about this one day and with everything in his favour he gets my vote.

The shortlist is completed by Grey Dawning who will also be primed for his life and Grangeclare West who is the sort of horse who could run into a place at a massive price if the ground is good.

1) Jango Baie

2) Fact To File

3) The Jukebox Man

Foxhunters Chase

This isn’t a race that I would ever feel too confident in putting anything up due to the unique nature of the race and this year is no different.

Wonderwall caused an upset in this last year and returns the 5/1 defending champ. That price looks skinny enough for a horse who has always struggled for consistency and despite winning on his reappearance this season, I wouldn’t be rushing in to back him for this.

It’s On The Line has been beaten in this too often for my liking yet still seems to have his supporters. Con’s Roc is one that interests me however and he looks like the sort of horse who could peak at the Festival after missing out last year.

Won impressively

PANDA BOY won impressively last time out and he just about edges the vote given his record under rules was good.

The switch to Hunter chasing might just show him in a better light due to the nature of the competition and he has always threatened to win a big one like this so it wouldn’t be a surprise to me if he were too classy for these.

Snipe completes my shortlist as he has been shrewdly campaigned, probably with this race in mind. The trip will be no issue to him and his younger legs might just shine through up the hill.

1) Panda Boy

2) Con’s Roc

3) Snipe

Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle

Dan Skelton looks to have campaigned current favourite A Pai De Nom with this race in mind all season but he perhaps has hidden a bit too much as he may just struggle to get into the race off a mark of 129.

The Passing Wife may have blown his handicap mark with a facile novice win last time out but features prominently in the betting and could still be improving.

Gordon Elliott tends to have a strong hand in this race and it would appear He Can’t Dance would be the number one hope at this moment given his timely 5th run recently which qualifies him for this race.

Ideal type

He ran ok in last year’s Cheltenham bumper and although his form wouldn’t excite you this season, he could find a new level of form here.

As mentioned earlier in the piece I am keen to see where HORACES PEARL lines up as he looks the ideal type for this race who could still be lurking on a lenient mark.

His fifth run over hurdles was at Haydock in November and although not sure reasons for his absence since, it might be a case of connections holding him back for a race like this.

Classy horse

A classy bumper horse who enjoyed a good season over hurdles last year, couldn’t quite see out the 3m trip on his only run this season but he showed enough that day to suggest he could take out a big pot this season.

Navajo Indy is the final horse on the shortlist as I think he is a lot better than what he showed last time out. A horse who ran so well over 2 miles always threatened to be better over further which he confirmed on his reappearance at Cheltenham this season.

A blow out over 3 miles last time out leaves him on a very feasible mark and I can see running well if allowed to take his chance here.

1) Horaces Pearl

2) Navajo Indy

3) He Can’t Dance