It looks like a really interesting weekend's racing and it kicks off at Newbury today. The opener looks a competitive handicap but I expect THUNDERCLAP to still have a pound or two in hand on the handicapper on the back of his dominant performance at Kempton last time out. The step up in trip looked to really suit him and returning to a stiffer track could bring about further improvement. At 4/1 he looks the value bet of the race despite being favourite.
I can't see past PASSING WELL in the 3.00 as I expect him to bounce back from a below par performance last time. The switch back to 2m 4f and soft ground should see him back to his best and if he is then he should take all the beating given his form. A close third to Henry's Friend now looks very strong form and prior to that he had ran well over trips short of his best. At 9/4 he too is a solid favourite.
Newbury 1.50 – Thunderclap
Newbury 3.00 – Passing Well
Saturday
I'm hoping to land a juicy price winner on Saturday and I'm chancing my arm with a few of my selections. One of the more solid selections is HELTENHAM at Newbury in the Greatwood Gold Cup. I was sweet on him last week at Kempton but it turned out that the track was just too trappy for him. Looking the most likely winner entering the straight he just got tapped for toe at the wrong time. He then rallied at the back of the last and went down a narrow margin to a progressive, young horse. The return to a galloping track like Newbury where he has enjoyed success before should see him go one better.
Up at Kelso, there are a few at a price that really interest me. CHOOSE A COPPER looks the value bet at 33/1 in the Premier Novices Hurdle. He arguably disappointed over further last time out having raced keenly enough. On the back of that run, the step down in trip looks a wise move and I expect him to outrun his odds.
Similar comments apply to CAITHNESS for the same connections. Having looked progressive in the Autumn he has ran two very similar races the last twice where he has travelled the best up in the van but then just faded late on. I wonder whether those runs were to set him up for this given he has already won at the course twice already. I am guessing of course but at 50/1 he is worth a guess based on his Autumn form.
MONBEG GENIUS looks the NAP up at Kelso as he looks the most progressive horse in the Premier Chase. I am disappointed he isn't going to line up in the Ultima at Cheltenham as I thought he was weighted to go a couple places better than last year. Connections have decided on this easier option and rightly so probably. I expect him to be fit enough to win this but he will undoubtedly come on for the run as his main aim will be the Grand National. 7/4 is fair enough.
I'm sure COASTGUARD STATION is well handicapped and I'm hoping he can prove this tomorrow. Henry Oliver is a shrewd trainer and wouldn't send his charge up here if he hadn't primed him for this. He likes to come off the pace so this stiff track should result in his rivals coming back to him late on. It doesn't look like that deep a race and he has a lovely racing weight so I'm hopeful of a bold showing.
Newbury 1.55 – Heltenham
Kelso 2.17 – Choose A Copper
Kelso 2.50 – Caithness
Kelso 3.25 – Monbeg Genius
Kelso 5.10 – Coastguard Station
