I'm taking a wild stab in the dark based on prices alone with my first tip this weekend. BARNAVIDDAUN is currently priced up at 40/1 in a 7 runner novice chase which is flakey enough. David Bridgwater isn't one to have a Cheltenham runner if he doesn't think he has a chance so it's interesting he allows him to make his chase debut here. His form in Ireland would certainly give him a chance but I just don't think he should be the price he is given his opposition aren't exactly reliable types.
A much more confident selection based on form is PUNXSUTAWNEY PHIL who drops back in trip in the 1.15. I tipped him up last time when he ran a good 4th in a very hot race and it just seemed like he faded up the hill that day despite travelling into the straight with every chance. Therefore the drop back in trip looks a wise move at at 9/1 he looks a sound each way play in an open race.
The price has gone about JACK SHARP now but I still think he has an outstanding chance off 115 at Doncaster. A well related type, he has been on my radar for a long time and one I expect to progress through the ranks this season. His facile success last time in novice company was expected but the handicapper left him unchanged and that could have been a mistake from a handicapper's perspective. I think he should go very close.
Cheltenham 12.40 Barnaviddaun
Cheltenham 1.15 – Punxsutawney Phil
Doncaster 2.50 – Jack Sharp
Saturday
I was so impressed with TOMMY'S OSCAR last time out at Haydock that I couldn't help but feel he might be up to stepping up to graded company this season. Connections have decided to take in another handicap first and if he is a graded horse then he should be winning this. Good ground is key to him and I think when he gets those conditions then he is a very, very good horse. He took apart a good field at Haydock and had plenty left so despite a hike in the weights I can see no reason why he can't go in again here. Currently 4/1 as this goes to press.
When I priced up the Hereford 2.32 in my head I can assure you I didn't have HARDY DU SEUIL at 5/1. I think this is a bit of a gift in all honesty as I think he should be favourite despite not completing two of his 3 chase starts. Thankfully neither have been bad falls so I don't think his confidence would have been dented too much and in between those mishaps was a dominant performance albeit in a two runner race at Carlisle. I really liked the way he travelled into the race at Market Rasen last time out although I don't think he would have passed a very good winner. He looked to be tiring as he came to grief so i think the step down to 2m is a good idea. Connections have made no secret of the regard they hold him in and I will be astounded if he isn't in the frame off 129 minus his four year old allowance.
Doncaster 2.05 – Tommy's Oscar
Hereford 2.32 – Hardy Du Seuil
