Horse Racing TV Trends and Tips (25th Feb 2023)

This weekend the ITV cameras head to Kempton, with their newly-sponsored Coral Trophy Handicap Chase their feature contest, while they are also at for the Derby and the Newcastle for their Eider Chase.

Here at AHEAD we are on hand with all the key trends and stats for the LIVE ITV races.

Kempton Park Horse Racing Trends (ITV4)

1.50 – Coral Adonis Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 2m ITV4

16/17 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting
15/17 –  Came from the top 3 in the betting
15/17 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
14/17 – Had won no more than once over hurdles in the UK
13/17 – Winners that went onto run in the Triumph Hurdle (3 winners)
13/17 – Placed favourites
13/17 – Had won over 2m (hurdles) before
12/17 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
11/17– Won carrying either a 4lb or 7lb penalty
10/17 – Won last time out
9/17 – Winning favourites
7/17 – French bred
5/17 – Irish bred
5/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
4/17 – Trained by Alan (won two of last 4 runnings)
4/17 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/17 – Winners that went onto win that season's Triumph Hurdle
Zarkandar, Soldatino and Penzance went onto land that season's Triumph Hurdle at the Cheltenham

Note: The 2006 renewal was staged at Park

2.25 – Coral Pendil Novices´ Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 2m4f110y ITV4

15/17 – French (8) of Irish (6) bred
13/17 – Favourites that finished in the top 3
12/17 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
12/17 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
12/17 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
12/17 – Ran in the last 5 weeks
11/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (won 7 of the last 12)
10/17 – Had won between 1-2 times over fences before
8/17 – Won last time out
8/17 – Winning favourites
Harry Cobden has ridden the last two winners
Sam Twiston-Davies has ridden 2 of the last 8 winners
3 of the last 5 winners owned by Johnny de la Hey

3.00 – Coral Trophy Chase Chase (Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 3m ITV4

17/20 – Finished in the top 5 last time out
17/20 – Aged 9 or younger
16/20 – Rated 139 or higher
15/20 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
14/20 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
14/20 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
13/20 – Won a Class 2 chase or better before
13/20 – Carried 10-13 or more
12/20 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
12/20 – Came from the top 4 in the betting
11/20 – Rated between 139 and 150
11/20 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
9/20 – Carried 11-5 or more
9/20 – Had won at least 4 times over fences before
7/20 – Won last time out
6/20 – Aged 8 years-old
6/20 – French bred
4/20 – Winners that went onto run in that season's Grand National (all unplaced)
4/20 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
4/20 – Winners that went onto run at that season's Cheltenham Festival (1 winner)
3/20 – Ridden by Paddy Brennan
3/20 – Trained by
2/20 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
2/20 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
2/20 – Trained by Neil Mulholland (won 2 of the last 6)
2/20 – Trained by Colin Tizzard (won 2 of the last 6)
2/20 – Trained by Philip Hobbs (won it 4 times in all)
2/20 – Ran in the VI Chase last time out
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 12/1
Note: The 2006 running was staged at Sandown Park

3.40 – Sky Bet Dovecote Novices´ Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 2m ITV

15/16 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
15/16 – Had won over 2m (hurdles) before
14/16 – Returned a single-figure price in the betting
13/16 – Had never raced over hurdles at Kempton before
13/16 – Won between 0-2 times over hurdles before
13/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/15 – Placed favourites
10/16 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
10/16 – Won last time out
6/16 – Went onto run at that season's Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
5/16 – Winning favourites
5/16 – French bred
4/16 – Trained by Alan King
4/16 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/16 – Trained by Paul Nicholls

Note: The 2006 renewal was staged at Sandown Park

Newcastle Horse Racing Trends (ITV4)

3.25 – Vertem Eider Handicap Chase Cl2 4m1f ITV4

18/18 – Had won over at least 3m before
16/18 – Aged 10 or younger
15/18 – Carried 10-13 or more
15/18 – Priced 12/1 or shorter in the betting
14/18 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
13/18 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
12/18 – Irish-bred
12/18 – Winners came from the top 3 in the betting
12/18 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
12/18 – Officially rated between 131-140
12/18 – Aged either 8 or 9 years-old
10/18 – Placed favourites
6/18 – Won last time out
5/18 – Won over 3m4f or further before
3/18 – Carried 11-12 in weight
3/18 – Winning favourites
2/18 – Irish-trained winners
The average winning SP in the last 18 runnings is 10/1

Lingfield Horse Racing Trends (ITV4)

1.30 – BetUK Hever Sprint Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 5f6y ITV4

12/15 – Rated 96+
12/15 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
11/15 – Had raced at Lingfield before
11/15 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
10/15 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
10/15 – Raced 6 weeks or longer ago
9/15 – Placed favs
8/15 – Ran at Lingfield last time out
5/15 – Winning favourites
5/15 – Mare winners
4/15 – US bred
0/15 – Winners from stall 1
One Night Stand won the race in 2022

2.05 – BetUK Winter Derby (All-Weather Championship Fast-Track Qualifier) (Group 3) Cl1 1m2f ITV4

17/20 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or shorter
17/20 – Won by a horse aged 6 or younger
16/20 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the market
16/20 – Won over at least 1m2f previously
15/20 – Had run at Lingfield previously
15/20 – Had raced at either Lingfield (11) or Kempton (4) last time out
14/20 – Drawn in stall 7 or less
14/20 – Came from the top 3 in the market13/20 – Winning distance – less than a length
13/20 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
12/20 – Placed in their last race
12/20 – Won at Lingfield previously
11/20 – Won their last race
9/20– Won at least 6 times previously
8/20 – Winning favourites
4/20 – Ridden by (2 of last 4 runnings)
3/20 – Trained by (3 of the last 4 runnings)
2/20 – Ridden by Andrea Atzeni (2 of last 10)
2/20 – Ridden by Adam Kirby (2 of last 8)

Just 2 of the last 16 Winter Derby Trial winners have gone onto win the Winter Derby
The average winning SP in the 20 renewals is 11/2

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