The Belmont Stakes always delivers something different. It’s not just the final race of the Triple Crown—it’s often the most unpredictable. That’s exactly why bettors pay extra attention when June rolls around.
This year, the 2025 Belmont Stakes returns to Saratoga Race Course for a second straight run due to ongoing construction at Belmont Park. Once again, the race will be run at 1 ¼ miles, not the usual 1 ½ miles. That change alone makes the event a unique challenge for handicappers and casual fans alike.
So if you’re gearing up to make your picks, here’s what you need to know before you bet on the Belmont Stakes this year. We’ll cover how the shorter distance impacts strategy, what recent history tells us, and why the favorites don’t always live up to the hype.
This Isn’t Your Traditional Belmont
This year’s Belmont isn’t your standard “Test of the Champion,” as the race is known. With the temporary move to Saratoga, the field faces a different track, different turns, and a different kind of race altogether.
Normally, the Belmont Stakes is all about endurance. At 1 ½ miles, it tests how well a horse can finish after already running two grueling Triple Crown legs. But with the new 1 ¼-mile format, there’s more pressure on positioning, pace, and acceleration.
That means horses who may have struggled at 12 furlongs now have a fighting chance. And it means you need to look beyond stamina alone if you want to bet on the Belmont Stakes.
Why Tactical Speed Matters More
Shortening the race means fewer chances for closers to launch a big rally. That shifts value toward horses with tactical speed—those that can sit just off the pace and pounce at the right moment.
Rodriguez is a great example. He’s expected to push the early lead and could go gate-to-wire if the pace goes uncontested. On the flip side, horses like Journalism and Baeza, who typically make their move late, will need a clean trip and perfect timing to overcome the tighter window.
So when reviewing past performances, prioritize races run at 1 1/8 or 1 ¼ miles. Look at pace figures, not just finishing times. And check how each horse handled turns and tight packs—those details often separate contenders from also-rans at Saratoga.
Big Names Don’t Always Deliver
Belmont favorites don’t have the best strike rate. While horses like Justify and Essential Quality did get it done in recent years, there have been plenty of upsets as well.
Take 2023, for instance. Arcangelo wasn’t at the top of most betting slips but ran a brilliant race to win as an 8-1 shot. In 2024, Dornoch came through at even longer odds, proving once again that recent form and betting trends don’t always provide the full picture.
This year, Journalism and Sovereignty top the board. Both deserve respect—Journalism is coming off a monster Preakness win, while Sovereignty looked unbeatable in the Derby. But don’t ignore rising names like Baeza, who’s been steadily closing the gap and brings the pedigree of a champion.
Use Recent Form, But Don’t Rely on It Alone
A horse’s last outing is important—but it’s not everything. That’s especially true when comparing the Kentucky Derby and Preakness to the Belmont. Each race asks different questions of the horses.
Sovereignty, for example, skipped the Preakness to rest for the Belmont. That could be a smart move or a momentum killer. Journalism won the Preakness after a tough Derby trip, showing off both class and resilience. But can he deliver again on a tighter track?
Baeza, meanwhile, quietly finished third in the Derby despite drawing a brutal post. He’s rested, steadily improving, and has a pedigree loaded with past winners. If you’re looking for a mid-range horse with upside, he’s worth a second look.
Track Bias and Weather Can Swing Everything
Don’t overlook the Saratoga track itself. Nicknamed “The Graveyard of Favorites,” it’s earned that reputation for a reason. The surface can change quickly—from fast to sloppy—and not every horse adapts well to those shifting conditions.
Watch workout reports closely during race week. Horses that move smoothly over the Saratoga dirt in the mornings often replicate that form in the afternoon. Also, pay attention to inside vs. outside trips—track bias can favor certain posts depending on weather and maintenance.
If a rainstorm hits, everything changes. Sovereignty showed he can dominate in the slop at Churchill. If Saratoga turns up muddy, he might gain an edge over Journalism, who prefers firmer ground.
Building Smart Tickets
The Belmont isn’t just about picking the winner—it’s one of the best races for exotic bets. When the favorites attract most of the win money, deeper wagers like exactas, trifectas, and superfectas can offer much better value.
Here’s a basic approach for building a smart trifecta or superfecta:
- Key Journalism or Sovereignty in first or second,
- Add Baeza and one longshot like Hill Road in the mix,
- Spread the bottom slots with value picks like Heart of Honor or Crudo.
That gives you coverage without going too deep, and it builds around realistic race outcomes. If the chalk holds, you’re still in play. If a bomb hits the board, you’re positioned to cash.
Betting Late? Watch the Odds Board
Odds movement tells a story. If a horse drops from 15-1 to 8-1 overnight, there’s buzz. Maybe it’s a workout. Maybe a trainer comment. Or maybe the smart money is moving early.
Pay attention to these shifts, but don’t chase steam. Trust your prep. Stick to your reads. If you’ve done your homework, the odds shouldn’t scare you off a good bet.
It’s Still a Horse Race—Expect Surprises
The Belmont is never a walkover. Even when a Triple Crown is on the line, horses have to show up and deliver under pressure. This year’s field is stacked with talent, but no horse has proven unbeatable.
That’s why it’s so rewarding to bet on the Belmont Stakes. You get a true test of class, speed, and adaptability—all in one race. And if you play it right, you’re not just watching history, you’re part of it.
So before you place your bets, take the time to study how this year’s setup changes the game. Look past the hype. Watch the replays. Follow the news out of Saratoga. That extra effort can be the edge you need.
