Newmarket TV Tips and Trends: Fri 24th Sept 2021

Another big day of LIVE ITV racing this Friday as the cameras head to Newmarket to take in four races, including the Group Two Rockfel and Joel Stakes.

As always, we’ve got it all covered with all the big-race trends for the LIVE races, plus our verdict on each contest – Enjoy!

Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

1.50 – British EBF Rosemary Stakes (Listed Race) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m ITV4

10/10 – Had won over 1m before
10/10 – Had between 3-6 runs that season
9/10 – Didn’t win last time out
8/10 – Won between 1-3 times before
8/10 – Winning distance – 1 length or shorter
7/10 – Drawn in stalls 7 or lower
7/10 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
6/10 – Had run at Newmarket (Rowley) before
6/10 – Aged 3 years-old
5/10 – Placed horses from stall 3 (2 winners)
3/10 – Raced at Ascot last time out
3/10 – Trained by William Haggas
2/10 -Trained by Richard Hannon
2/10 – Trained by John Gosden
2/10 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
0/10 – Winning favourites
Richard Hannon won the race in 2013 and 2020
William Haggas won the race in 2014, 2017 & 2018
John Gosden won the race in 2015 & 2016

RACING AHEAD VERDICT: Ryan Moore catches the eye being booked to ride Ummalnar for the Roger Charlton yard. This 6 year-old was an easy Listed winner in Ireland last November, but returned to Newcastle in January as a beaten favourite – connections saying the horse didn’t enjoy being taken on for the lead. If bouncing back to form she can’t be ruled out, but if something takes here on again here she could throw the towel in again. The Godolphin camp has three entered – Wedding Dance, Dubai Love and SOFT WHISPER. Of course, all three coming from these powerful connections are respected, but the last-named gets the call. Frankie Dettori has been booked to ride this Saeed Bin Suroor runner, so it will be like the old days when the pocket Italian was retained by the ‘boys in blue’. This 3 year-old flopped in Dubai last time out, but she was found to be lame so had an excuse. She’s had 6 months off since to get over that run and prior to that had caught the eye winning four times. Frankie is also 1-from-1 on her, having won a Listed contest on her at Meydan back in January. She’s the top rated in the field too (108) and also gets a handy 4lbs from all the older horses in the race. Of the rest, Maamora and Fooraat have to be respected for Sheikh Ahmed Al Maktoum and of the pair, FOORAAT (e/w) looks likely to run her race. She was a close runner-up in a Listed race at York last time out, when badly hampered – the drop back to a mile is fine and she’s been freshened up with a few months off.

2.25 – Princess Royal Muhaarar Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m4f ITV4

14/16 – Ran in the last 8 weeks
13/16 – Had won over 1m2f or further in the past
13/16 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
12/16 – Placed favourites
12/16 – Won between 1-3 times before
11/16 – Aged 3 years-old
9/16 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
7/16 – Winning favourites
6/16 – Won last time out
3/16 – Ran at Doncaster last time out
2/16 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/16 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/16 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/16 – Ridden by William Buick
The horse from stall 12 has won 3 of the last 8 runnings
Trainer John Gosden has won 4 of the last 9 runnings
Antonia De Vega (16/5) won the race in 2020

RACING AHEAD VERDICT: This has been a good race in recent years for the Gosden yard, so their Godolphin runner – PENNYMOOR (e/w) – might be worth having a small interest in here. Yes, she flopped at York last time out in a Listed race – getting tired very quickly that day – but prior to that was an easy 9 ½ length winner at Kempton. She’ll have a bit to prove back on the turf here, but gets a bit of weight from the older horses in the race and might just be worth giving another chance to. Godolphin also run Sayyida here and she is the only proven CD winner in the field. A recent close fourth in a G3 in France would give her a big say and is another of the 3 year-olds getting weight from the 4+ year-olds in the race. Domino Darling has fair form to her name too, but is becoming hard to win with, while the Irish raider – Forbearance – has a consistent profile in and around this level to warrant a lot of respect too. Golden Pass, Lady Hayes, Mystery Angel and Glenartney are closely-matched on recent form and can’t be ruled out either, but the main pick here is ALBAFLORA. Off a mark of 110, she’s the clear top-rated in the field and having run well in G1 and G2 races this season will find this slight ease in grade up her street. She ran the classy Snowfall to 4 lengths last time in the Yorkshire Oaks and so a repeat of that effort would surely make her hard to beat.

3.00 – Rockfel Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies) Cl1 7f ITV4

15/17 – Had won 1-2 times in the past
15/17 – Placed in the top 3 last time
15/17 – Raced in the last 6 weeks
10/17 – Placed favourites
10/17 – Won by a March or April born foal
9/17 – Won over 7f before
8/17 – Won last time out
5/17 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
4/17 – Winning favourites
3/17 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
3/17 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
3/17 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori (2 of last 5 winners)
2/17 – Trained by trainer Mick Channon
2/17 – Won by the Hills yard
2/17 – Won by trainer Jim Bolger
2/17 – Went onto win the 1,000 Guineas the following season
2/17 – Winners from stalls 1 or 2
9 of the last 12 winners came between stalls 5-8 (inc)
Isabella Giles (11/5) won the race in 2020

RACING AHEAD VERDICT: With 9 of the last 12 winners coming between stalls 5 and 8, this is a plus for Jumbly, Girl On Film, Majestic Glory and Kawida. All of those four head here having won last time out too, but with jockey Frankie Dettori having won 2 of the last 5 then his mount GIRL ON FILM is interesting. Yes, she’s only had one run but that was a smooth success on the July course here in August. She’s up in grade here, but is clearly held in high regard as she also holds a G1 Fillies’ Mile entry next month. It’s hard to ignore the chance of the George Boughey-trained Oscula too – she was last seen running close in a G2 in France and has held her form well all season around this level, having won 50% of her 6 runs on the turf to date – she’s the top-rated in the field. Boughey also has course winner – Cachet – in the race and having weakened over 1m last time out in France will be well-suited by the return to 7f. But the other pick is the Andrew Balding runner – MAJESTIC GLORY. Ridden by Ryan Moore, this juvenile is progressing well after winning twice recently on the July course at HQ. The last of those wins came in the G3 Sweet Solera Stakes too, which was her first try over this 7f trip. She’s had a small break of 48 days to recover and looks the sort to have more in the locker, plus is another that holds a G1 entry in the Fillies’ Mile next month.

3.35 – Joel Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 1m ITV4

16/17 – Had won a Listed or Group race before
14/17 – Officially rated between 111-118
14/17 – Had won a Group race before
13/17 – Had won over 1m before
12/17 – Raced in the last 6 weeks
12/17 – Failed to win last time out
12/17 – Priced 5/1 or shorter in the betting
11/17 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
11/17 – Won 4 or less times before
11/17 – Had raced at Newmarket (Rowley) before (5 won)
10/17 – Raced at either Doncaster, Haydock, Newmarket or Newbury last time out
6/17 – Aged 4 years-old
6/17 – Winning favourites
3/17 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
3/17 – Ridden by Ryan Moore (including 2 of last 6 runnings)
3/17 – Won by Godolphin (Saeed Bin Suroor)
3/17 – Winners from stalls 2 or 3
3/17 – Ridden by Oisin Murphy
2/17 – Trained by Roger Charlton
2/17 – Trained by David O’Meara (2 of the last 9)
2/17 – Trained by Andrew Balding (2 of the last 4)
Kameko (85/40) won the race in 2020
Benbatl won this race in 2019
4 of the last 5 winners came from stalls 2 (2) or 6 (2)

RACING AHEAD VERDICT: A decent renewal of this Group Two, with all 8 runners rated within 10lbs of each other. The Godolphin camp have a big hand with joint top-rated pair of Master Of The Seas, who is a proven CD winner here, and 2019 winner of this race – BENBATL. The former gets a handy 4lbs from Benbatl here too and was last seen running a close second in the 2000 Guineas to Poetic Flare. The form of that race has since been franked by the winner many times this season. He’s not been seen since though, so that might put people off him a bit, but he’s sure to be well tuned up for this and it’s hard to crab his chance. But I’m happy to stick with the 2019 winner of this race – Benbatl.  Yes, he’s no spring chicken at 7 years-old but he returned to the track last month with a close second in the G2 Celebration Mile, beaten just a short head. That run showed he retains his ability and can also be expected to have come on for it as it was from 337-days away from the track. Of the rest, Sir Busker and Perotto can go well but might just lack the class at this level. CD winner, Pogo is another to consider, while Lanegash has been placed in the top three in his last two races at this level. However, with the Andrew Balding yard having a fair recent record in this race (won 2 of the last 4) a chance is also taken on their QUEEN SUPREME (e/w). This 5 year-old was formerly trained in South Africa by Mick De Kock, who actually won this race in 2013 himself – Queen Supreme was a G1 winner over there. She’s having her UK debut here today and the drop back to 1m looks a good move having not seemingly stayed 1m2f last time out. She’s won 50% of her 14 turf starts, while it’s interesting that connections have also booked top jockey Ryan Moore.

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