Lingfield Good Friday Free Tips and Trends (2nd April 21)

Make It A ‘Good’ Friday at Lingfield – All-Weather Championships

2.00 – Betway All-Weather Marathon Championships Conditions Stakes Cl2 (4 yo+) 1m7f169y ITV4

Six previous runnings
5 of the last 6 winners aged between 4-6 years-old
5 of the last 6 winners came from stalls 8 or lower
4 of the last 6 winners had won at the track before
2 of the last 6 favourites have won
2 of the last 6 winners came from stall 8
3 of the last 6 winners ran at Lingfield last time out
All six past winners finished in the top 3 last time out
The favourite has finished 1st (twice) or 2nd in the last 6 runnings
Watersmeet was second in the race in 2017 and third in 2018 and won in 2019
Trainer Mark Johnston has a 29% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Roger Varian has a 19% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey James Doyle has a 27% record riding 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey Martin Dwyer is just 3 from 107 riding 4+ year-olds at the track
Note: No race in 2020
2019 Winner: WATERSMEET (7/1)

RACING AHEAD VERDICT: Seven runners head to post and with four of them last-time-out winners then we should have a good contest on our hands. Australis, Ranch Hand, Amtiyaz and RAINBOW DREAMER are the four recent winners in question, but in this conditions race you feel the 97-rated Australis and the 94-rated Amtiyaz have a bit to find.  Ranch Hand will be ridden by James Doyle, who has a decent 27% record when riding 4+ year-olds here, but this one should be closely-matched with Rock Eagle after just a neck separated them at Chelmsford last time out. Course winner, Island Brave can’t be totally ruled out either on his best form and will be better for a recent fourth at Newcastle after a break, but the two I like here are RAINBOW DREAMER and LUCKY DEAL (e/w). The former is the top-rated in the field and having won 6 times from his 10 races on the AW knows how to get the job done. He stays this 2m trip well and even though this is him first run at the track there is no reason why it won’t suit. Lucky Deal hails from the Mark Johnston yard that won this the last time it was run in 2019. This 6 year-old has 1 ¾ to find with Ranch Hand, who beat him at Chelmsford last time out, but he ran a bit lazy that day and I would not be shocked to see him reverse that form at a track the Johnston yard have a cracking 29% record with their older horses at.

2.35 – Ladbrokes All weather Fillies’ and Mares’ Championships Conditions Stakes Cl2 (4 yo+) 7f1y ITV4

Six previous runnings
Just 1 winning favourite in the last 6 runnings
5 of the 6 winners were aged 4 years-old
5 of the last 6 previous winners were Irish-bred horses
Horses from stall 3 have been placed in 4 of the last 6 runnings (2 winners)
Favourites placed in 4 of the last 6 runnings
3 of the last 6 winners had run at Lingfield before (2 had won)
Trainer Richard Hannon has a 21% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer David Loughnane has a 21% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey James Doyle has a 27% record riding 4+ year-olds at the track
Note: No race in 2020
2019 Winner: HEAVENLY HOLLY (9/1)

RACING AHEAD VERDICT: Course winners, Fizzy Feet and Shimmering Dawn, are sure to make bold bids, especially the former – Fizzy Feet from stall 3 – we’ve seen 4 of the last 6 horses from that berth place (2 winners). Nirodha and Pholas were both winners last time out, but have a lot more on their plates here, so the call is the 103-rated Gosden runner – INDIE ANGEL, who on her best form should be hard to beat. She’s got 4lbs in-hand on Fizzy Feet and is 8lbs superior to Shimmering Dawn, plus is a proven course winner at the track. We also know she stays a bit further than this 7f trip, having won a Listed race here back in October over a mile, so that will be an asset that connections are sure to look to exploit. Arafi makes up the six runners from the Richard Hannon yard.  

3.10 – Betway All-Weather Sprint Championships Conditions Stakes Cl2 (4 yo+) 6f1y ITV4

Six previous runnings
Trainer Richard Fahey won this race in 2014, 2016 & 2017
Three winning favourites in the last 6 runnings
3 of the last 6 winners were Irish-bred horses
5 of the last 6 previous winners had raced at the track before
5 of the last 6 winners came between stalls 5-9 (inc)
5 of the last 6 winners drawn in stall 7 or lower
Paul Hanagan has ridden 2 of the last 6 winners
2 of the last 6 winners came from draw 5
Trainer John Quinn has a 33% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey Connor Beasley has a 29% record riding 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey Clifford Lee has a 27% riding 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey Jason Hart has 24% record riding 4+ year-olds at the track
Note: No race in 2020
2019 Winner: KACHY (4/9 fav)

RACING AHEAD VERDICT: A very tight race, with many chances. It’s been a good race for the favourites in recent years – with 50% of the last 6 winning, so the betting should be noted with the Hollie Doyle-ridden Harry’s Bar looking the potential market leader. This proven CD winner will be popular with Doyle riding and makes the trip over from the Irish yard of Adrian McGuinness. However, I’d be a bit worried about the draw (12) and based on that might be worth taking on. With 5 of the last 6 winners coming from stalls 5-9 (inc), then EXALTED ANGEL, BRIAN THE SNAIL, TINTO, SUMMERGHAND and TONE THE BARONE tick that draw stat. Trainer John Quinn also does well with his older horses at the track, so their in-form Lord Riddiford is another to consider, but the step up from 5f to 6f would be a concern. Venturous is respected, while course winners Highland Dress and Aberama Gold have the form to go well too. But I’ll stick my neck out on the already mentioned EXATLED ANGEL. This 5 year-old ticks a lot of the main trends and draw 5 looks ideal. Jockey Clifford Lee also has a decent 27% record riding older horses here, while his recent win was his first try over this 6f trip, so there could be more to come. BRAIN THE SNAIL (e/w) is also worth a small interest of those at bigger prices – mainly because the Richard Fahey have won this race three times before. This former Godolphin horse has a fair draw in 6 and has a good record at the track with two runs and two close seconds. He took a bit of a hold last time at Wolves, so had an excuse that day, but prior to that had been running well – he could easily bounce back and run well at a nice price in a race the yard love to target.

3.45 – Ladbroke 3 Year Old All-Weather Championships Conditions Stakes Cl2 (3yo) 6f ITV4

Three previous runnings
2 of the last 3 winners came from stalls 5 and 6
All 3 previous winners were favourites
Trainer Archie Watson won this race in 2018
Trainer William Haggas won this race in 2017
Trainer William Haggas has a 30% record with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Archie Watson has a 22% record with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Tom Dascombe is just 1 from 22 with his 3 year-olds at the track
Jockey James Doyle has a 32% record riding 3 year-olds at the track
Jockey Adam Kirby has a 25% record riding 3 year-olds at the track
Note: No race in 2020
2019 Winner: TRANSCENDENT (11/4 fav)

RACING AHEAD VERDICT: With a 30% record with his 3 year-old here at the track, then the William Haggas-trained Yazaman might have his supporters, plus the yard won this prize in 2017. But does have 4 lengths to find with Apollo One based on their run here last time out. Apollo One is a fast-improving 3 year-old from the Peter Charalambous yard and is certainly one for the shortlist. CD winner Mighty Gurkha is closely-matched with Zamaani, who were separated by just a neck at Kempton last time out over 6f – they can both go well and with the former ridden by Hollie Doyle and from the Watson yard that won this in 2018, is sure to attract interest. However, we’ve seen the last three favourites land this prize and with that in mind the Clive Cox-trained DILIGENT HARRY is the call. This 3 year-old only just failed to get up last time here over this trip (short-head), but with that only being his third career run is clearly still learning, so I just think being one of the lesser exposed runners in the field can find the necessary improvement to go close here. Of the rest, Victory Heights would be interesting after beating Mighty Gurkha at Wolves last December, but draw 10 and a 4 month break would be the worries.

4.15 – Betway Easter Classic All-Weather Middle Distance Championships Conditions Stakes Cl2 (4 yo+) 1m2f ITV4

Six previous runnings
5 of the last 6 previous runnings went to the favourite (or joint fav)
5 of the last 6 previous winners returned 3/1 or shorter in the betting
All previous winners aged between 4-6 years-old
4 of the 6 winners were Irish-bred horses
5 of the last 6 winners ran at Lingfield last time out
All six previous winners drawn in stall 4 or lower
5 of the past 6 winners had won over CD before
Horses from stall 4 have won 4 of the last 6 runnings
Horses from stall 2 placed in 4 of the last 6 runnings
Ryan Moore has ridden 2 of the last 6 winners of this race
Trainer Mark Johnston has a 29% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Brian Meehan has a 22% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey James Doyle has a 27% record riding 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey Jason Hart has a 24% record riding 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey Martin Dwyer is just 3 from 107 riding 4+ year-olds at the track
Note: No race in 2020
2019 Winner: MATTERHORN (9/2)

RACING AHEAD VERDICT: Another good race for the favourite – with 5 of the last 6 market leaders going in. All of the last 6 winners were also aged between 4-6 years-old, but all the six runners here fit that stat. It’s interesting too as all six runners are also proven CD winners, so we can’t say the track of trip doesn’t suit any either. The 111-rated BANGKOK sets the standard and will find this easier than the Saudi Cup (8th) last time out, but still picked up an incredible £291k for that race! This drop in grade and return to Lingfield will see him go well – he won the Winter Derby Trial here back in Feb so a repeat of that run would see him as hard to beat. His overall form at the track reads 1-3-2-1. Forest Of Dean won the actual Winter Derby in Feb, but it didn’t look the best renewal and the form has taken a few knocks since. He can still go well and is yet to finish out of the top three from his five AW runs, but was beaten by the pick here two runs ago so would probably need to step up again. Byford has a bit to find on these terms, so it would be a shock if he won, so that leaves Assimilation, Palavecino and Sky Defender as the ones to fight it out for the places. They are all capable of going close on their best form, while the ratings suggests a blanket could be thrown over them at the finish – being rated just a few pounds between each other.  

4.45 – Bombardier All-Weather Mile Championships Conditions Stakes Cl2 (4 yo+) 1m1y ITV4

No winning favourite in the last 6 runnings
All previous winners aged between 5-8 years-old.
All six past winners drawn 8 or lower
All six winners came between stalls 5-8 (inc)
5 of the last 6 winners didn’t win their last race
5 of the last 6 winners had run at the track before (3 won)
3 of the last 6 winners came from stall 8
Trainer Richard Hannon has a 21% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Roger Varian has a 19% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey James Doyle has a 27% record riding 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey Hayley Turner is just 3 from 44 riding 4+ year-olds at the track
Note: No race in 2020
2019 Winner: OH THIS IS US (5/1)

RACING AHEAD VERDICT: All of the last 6 winners were drawn 8 or lower, so this might be deemed a negative for Documenting and the French raider Silver Quartz. In fact, all recent winners have come from stalls 5-8 (inc), so this is a plus for FOX DUTY FREE (5), MISSION BOY (6), CANAGAT (7) and BLESS HIM (8). The Roger Varian yard, that have a good record at the track with their 4+ year-olds, have a good chance with KHUZAAM. This 5 year-old has won 3 of his 7 AW starts and is also yet to finish outside the top two from those AW outings. This will be harder though and he did hang a bit left last time and take a bit of a hold – you feel he might have to iron that out in this better race. MUMS TIPPLE can go well too for the Hannon yard after winning a Listed race well over 7f last time. The step up to a mile could bring out more improvement, while this is only his third run back since being gelded. He’s the joint-top rated in the field (109) and the Hannon yard do well at the track with their 4+ year-olds (21%). Intutitve deserves a mention too and beat Mission Boy easily here two runs back, but this looks harder than the handicap races he’s been contesting. Of the rest, a small saver on BLESS HIM (e/w) and FOX DUTY FREE (e/w). The former should find this a bit easier than the G2 races he’s been running in, while the last-named could be an improver after smooth wins at the track on his last three starts.

5.15 – Bombardier All Weather Championships Apprentice Handicap Cl2 (4 yo+) 7f SKY

Three previous runnings
Trainer Simon Dow won the race in 2017
Two of the last 3 winners came from stall 1 and 5
Last three winners carried 8-13 or more in weight
Trainer Simon Hodgson has a 24% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Richard Hannon has a 21% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer David Loughnane has a 21% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Karl Burke has a 20% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey Angus Villiers has a 30% record riding 4+ year-olds at the track
Note: No race in 2020
2019 Winner: GORING (14/1)

RACING AHEAD VERDICT: Only three past runnings so not a race to go mad on re the stats. We have, however, seen all three winners carry 8-13 or more in weight, so the bottom six on the card – Baby Steps, Amber Island,  Corazon Espinado, Gabrial The Devil and Harrison Point might have this against them. The Mick Appleby yard have booked the useful Beniot De La Sayette, who won the Lincoln Handicap last weekend, for their Ayr Harbour. He can claim 7lbs and that offsets the 6lb ride this horse had after winning at Southwell last time out. Lord Of The Lodge rarely runs a bad race and was a fine second to Mums Tipple, who goes in the previous race, last time out. Therefore, a good run from that horse will frank his chance. But I’ll take a chance on the Richard Hannon runner – OH THIS IS US (e/w) – bouncing back to form, plus the Simon Hodgson runner – TOTAL COMMITMENT (e/w) – running well. The former has won on this card in the past and looks to have had this race as a target after returning from 3-4 months out last time. Will be a lot fitter for that last run and is down a pound in the ratings too. Luke Catton rode that day and is on again here and can claim a handy 5lbs. Total Commitment is has finished in the top two in 11 of this 16 AW runs and with the Simon Hodgson yard having a decent 24% record with their 4+ year-olds at the track, while jockey Angus Villiers can claim a handy 3lbs and also boasts a nice 30% record riding 4+ year-olds at this venue.

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