Japan Cup 2025 preview: Calandagan leads European charge

Whether we like to admit it – or not – we now live in a big, wide world in all respects, with our goods made elsewhere, food imported as necessary, and a global stage for our best to perform on, be they actors, pop stars (is that even a saying these days?), sports stars and even racehorses.

I am writing this from my hotel room in Japan ahead of the 45th running of the Japan Cup at Tokyo racecourse on Sunday afternoon, local time, an invitational contest over the mile and a half (2400 metres) with over $7,000,000 in prize money, in front of a packed house of adoring fans, and last won by a European challenger back in 2005 with Alkaased, trained by Luca Cumani and ridden by Frankie Dettori, and so long ago that even he hadn’t retired for the first time yet!

To put that comment into a little bit of perspective, Europe do not send that many challengers despite the huge prize money.

Partly I suspect from racing snobbery (“our racing is the best – full stop”), partly from fear (“if we go and get beaten people will think their racing is the best”), and largely because there are (quite rightly) tricky quarantine rules to overcome.

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Calandagan

It is in late November at the end of a long, hard season for most, and more importantly, the Japanese are no racing backwater, and to beat the best in their own backyard is a Herculean task.

Last year, Aidan O’Brien sent Derby winner Auguste Rodin, and he only managed eighth, which gives us a better idea of what they are up against.

But in 2025, Francis-Henry Graffard sends horse of the year Calandagan – but can he bring home the spoils?

The four-year-old Gleneagles gelding has certainly moved up a gear this summer with wins in the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud, the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes and the Champion Stakes, both at Ascot, all three Group One’s of the highest calibre.

So is he “our” best chance for many years? I am inclined to think he is.

Positive vibe

Only five runs this year may leave him relatively fresh, as a gelding he is here for the money and the immortality, no showing off for potential breeding rights.

His trainer is as shrewd as they come and will want to do better than Goliath (sixth last year), who you felt was more an owner’s choice than the ideal sort for the race.

He handles the quick ground expected, has run well left-handed before (second to Danon Decile in Dubai in the Sheema Classic), and most importantly, seems to still be improving.

He looked a picture when I saw him working this morning and interviews with trainer Francis-Henri Graffard and Aga Khan Studs representative Nemone Routh at the track this morning saw them being polite and respectful (as you would expect).

But I felt I detected a positive vibe about his chances, so many things in his favour, and reports he has settled in well and improved all year (as I had hoped).

He looks the winner to me, but I am viewing through European-tinted glasses and he will need to be at his peak to lead this lot home.     

Christophe Lemaire

To mention the one horse would be churlish and put me in the same boat as others who ignore the strength in depth of International Racing these days, a drum I have been banging for more years than I care to remember, and the home team will not be rolling over and giving in, I can assure you.

The Japanese Racing Authority are happy to furnish us media scribes with more statistics than my little brain can cope with, but I can tell you that the leading trainer in this race (with a runner) is Haruki Sugiyama (Justin Palace).

The top jockey is Christophe Lemaire (Masquerade Ball), we have only had ONE winning favourite in the last 19 runnings, and that the number one stall has given us a 25% chance of finishing in the first two home – interesting, but nothing you can pin your flag to.  

That said, if we use the above, we MAY come up with the strongest Japanese challengers, and they point the way to 17/8 favourite Masquerade Ball, who arrives here on the back of a win in the Autumn Tenno Sho last time out, as well as a fast finishing second in the Japanese Derby, but I note the poor record of favourites and pass him over accordingly.

Odds

Justin Palace (Cristian Demuro) has not been at his best since winning the spring Tenno Sho in 2023 and recent form suggests a place may be the very best he can realistically hope for even from the prime one stall, and with the French raider drawing pretty favourably in the eight box (anything single figures was on the wish list), there will be some decent wine drunk tonight at a guess.

Add in Tom Marquand popping over from Hong Kong to ride Brede Weg for trainer Keisuke Miyata and Frenchman Alexis Pouchin on board St Leger winner Durezza, and there is a touch more European interest than it appears at first glance, which gave me the reasons I needed to be here.

Conclusions do need to be drawn, and I cannot pretend I have found it easy – I have no doubt that Calandagan is the best horse here, and official ratings agree with me, but I am also fully aware that Japanese runners dominate this race historically, so it is a difficult choice.

At the odds as I write I confess I was pleasantly surprised to see the Aga Khan’s colours as big as 100/30 and Calandagan still looks the value for a win bet to me, while if you fancy a small saver, then Justin Palace has plenty in his favour for a top-three finish at best odds of 18/1 even if I do believe a win is still way beyond him.

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