The 2025 Melbourne Cup: A Global Standoff at Flemington

On Tuesday 4 November 2025, the grand spectacle returns — the 165th running of the Melbourne Cup at Flemington. The race that stops a nation.

The 3,200-metre test is again poised to be one of the deepest and most internationally contested editions in recent memory, with 120 nominations submitted (101 local, 19 from abroad).

With millions in prize money, prestige, and bragging rights on the line, punters and racing fans will be scrutinising both proven stayers and emerging challengers. Here’s a snapshot of the top local and international hopes to watch.

Key Considerations

Weight Scales and Handicap Dynamics

The Melbourne Cup is a handicap, which always adds a layer of unpredictability. One headline from recent weight announcements, Al Riffa has been allocated top-weight, sharing that burden alongside the star mare Via Sistina. How trainers and jockeys manage those imposts over the two miles will be a major factor.

International Raiders Return Strong

Historically, the Cup is strongest when it draws elite global raiders. This year’s nominations include a slew of European, Japanese, and New Zealand stayers. Trainers of repute like Aidan O’Brien, Willie Mullins, Joseph O’Brien and Dermot Weld have entered contenders.

Local Champions and Proven Form

Australia’s stable of stayers is never short of contenders. Among them, high-profile names like Via Sistina and Sir Delius have attracted attention. Meanwhile, the defending champion Knight’s Choice is back in the mix, aiming to become just the third horse in history to win back-to-back Cups.

Recoveries, Comebacks & Wild Cards

Some contenders are returning from injuries or long layoffs. Mark Twain, for example, has been flagged as a potential dark horse if he returns to form. The evolving early trials will be closely watched.

Race-shape: Speed vs. Stamina

The Cup often comes down to who can relax through the early pace and unleash late. Analysts suggest the balance between tempo and endurance could decide this edition.

Top Local Chances

Below are some of the strongest Australian / Australasia-based contenders — though many also have international pedigree or connections:

Via Sistina – A mare with an elite CV and multiple Group 1 wins; early markets list her among the favourites. However she’ll carry serious weight, and mares tend to be harder to manage under top handicaps over long distances.

Sir Delius – Recently purchased from Europe specifically for the Cup, and the pedigree suggests strong staying capacity. However he’ll need to adapt fully to Australian conditions and prove his form over 3,200m.

Vauban – Has drawn early support in the markets after consistent runs and looks well-placed in early previews. Might find it hard to overcome a tough draw or heavy weight so will need everything to go right.

Knight’s Choice – The reigning champion, so confidence and experience count. However history shows defending champions are harder to repeat; the handicapper is unlikely to go easy on him.

International Dark Horses & Wild Cards

Here are several overseas contenders who could upset the locals:

Absurd (FR) – A French-based stayer; often these European stayers bring a solid mix of stamina and class.

Aftermath (IRE) – Part of Aidan O’Brien’s international contingent; if he handles the trip and track, he could be dangerous.

ChangingoftheGuard (IRE) – Another Irish nominee; could be a pace influence or a late closer.

Okita Soushi (IRE / NZ connections) – A dual-nominated horse, often seen as an “in-form” product of New Zealand staying tradition.

Japanese contenders & others – Reports suggest Japan is preparing raids, and even U.S. interest is not entirely ruled out.

These horses carry added challenges: making the travel and quarantine adjustment, dealing with Australian tracks, and running under handicap conditions away from home.

Early Predictions

It’s still early in the spring build-up, but here are some predictions and things to monitor:

Favourite pick: Via Sistina is arguably the standout in public perception — if she handles the weight and draw, she has the class to win.

Upset candidate: Sir Delius could go under the radar and deliver a big run, especially if he peels off the top six in good shape.

International threat: Aftermath (IRE), as a global raider, could be the one to catch if conditions suit him late in the race.

Dark horse to watch: Mark Twain — if he returns sharp from injury, his closing burst might surprise.

In the lead-up weeks, pay attention to:

1. Ballot & order of entry — Some strong horses may fail to make the final 24.
   
   
2. Spring trials and lead-up two-mile races — Form in key staying contests is often telling.
   
   
3. Weight adjustments & acceptances — Who carries what, and who steps out, can reshape the dynamics.
   
   
4. Barrier draw — Inside vs. outside can be crucial, especially over 3,200m over Flemington’s sprawling layout.
   
   
5. Weather / track condition — A soft or heavy track might tilt the advantage toward the tough stayers.
   
   

The 2025 Melbourne Cup already looks set to deliver a thrilling confrontation of local and global staying talent. While Via Sistina carries the aura of favourite, the likes of Sir Delius, Aftermath, and a handful of other seasoned stayers ensure that the night is far from locked in. As the spring builds and trials run, every movement, every barrier draw, every turnout could swing momentum.

Come November, the race that stops a nation may also crown a global champion!