Our resident tipster Ben Morgan gives his best picks for day three at Ascot
2.30 – Light to guide us home in the opener
It seemed that every Aidan O’Brien 2 year old crashed in price as soon as Gstaad crossed the line in the Coventry, the favourite here included.
Although you have to respect the Ballydoyle maestro and his ability to pull results out of the bag on the biggest stage, it does bring about plenty of value elsewhere.
I think NAVAL LIGHT offers that value in what has turned out to be a windy-looking Norfolk.
A big eye catcher on debut when facing more experienced horses at Beverley, he really hit the line hard once he got the hang of things and I think that bodes well for him here.
He should take a good step forward from that run and appreciate the stiff 5f here. At around the 4/1 mark I think he is value against the favourite.
One horse who definitely offers value is EXCLAMATION. Grace Harris’ 2-year-old hasn’t yet managed to win but his form is rock solid and I’m sure he will run better than a 100/1 shot.
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3.05 – Daiquiris all around
I was at Chester the day DAIQUIRI BAY won on season reappearance and I got the feeling at the time that despite it looking a weak enough race, he put in some performance to come from he came from and win so easily.
Not many horses made up that amount of ground that day and he certainly impressed me. His next run at Doncaster resulted in a narrow defeat to a smart one of Andrew Balding‘s which led to the handicapper handing out a mark of 93.
I think that’s a good mark from what I have seen so far and a price of 25/1 looks far too big.
3.40 – Tip top Cat to show her true colours in Ribblesdale
I thought CATALINA DELCARPIO was an unlucky loser last time out at Leopardstown as the strong staying winner set her own fractions in front and kicked away whilst my filly was trying to get out.
She still pulled clear of the field in second and lost little in defeat given the circumstances. Paddy Twomey resisted the temptation to go to the Oaks with her and instead comes here where I think she has a fantastic chance.
Her debut win was impressive and I hope we get to see that turn of foot again here.
4.20 – Ballydoyle Super Sub to take the beating in open Gold Cup
The retirement of Kyprios has meant that the stayers division is looking for a new Champion and it will be interesting who puts their hand up here.
It’s not a strong betting race for me and I’d rather just watch from the sidelines but I think the fresh legs of ILLINOIS could be quite hard to catch.
Trawlerman has spent the last few seasons mostly following Kyprios around whilst Coltrane and Sweet William have had their chance before.
Candelari represents France who haven’t produced a good stayer for a while so history is against him whilst the rest look a little outclassed in this field.
The new kid on the block holds a favourite chance and I think he will take some beating.
5.00 – The market tells its own Story in competitive Brittania
We’re 9/1 the field here which is something you don’t see all that often in British racing any more.
Such is the competitiveness of this year’s edition of the Brittania, punters will be scratching their heads trying to find an angle in.
I’m having two speculative punts here and the first one is ARABIAN STORY who cruised home at Chelmsford on British debut.
I have a lot of respect for Saeed Bin Suroor’s runners at big meetings as he only runs them if he thinks he has a chance of winning so it’s quite telling that not only he runs this horse here but he also has Oisin Murphy in the saddle who would have had the choice of a few here.
I think he is hiding a few pounds from the handicapper so I hope he gets the breaks at the right time here.
At a bigger price I’m having a punt on the enigmatic SHOUT who usually throws his race away at the start so he certainly comes with a bit of baggage.
However, if there was a race where you could forfeit a few lengths at the start and still win it is probably a fast run Brittania. If he gets the gaps I think he could surprise a few here.
5.35 – Be on Alert in Hampton Court
The Derby was too hard to refuse for Saeed Bin Suroor after such a promising Guineas run from TORNADO ALERT.
Breeding suggested he definitely wanted further than a mile and his run in the Guineas backed that up. Looking at his breeding though I would suggest 10f would be much more realistic than 12f and it looks like that could be the case.
Despite looking like he was going to get swamped in the Guineas he found second wind and stayed on powerfully to the line behind 3 smart horses whose form has been advertised well this week.
He ran a mighty race in the Derby all things considered to finish 6th and Oisin Murphy looked after him once his chance had gone which hopefully means he doesn’t find this race coming too soon.
I think he could be top class over this sort of trip and at 9/1 he looks a great each way bet here.
6.10 – Tried and tested approach taken in Buckingham Palace
I’m disappointed to see everyone else backing ENGLISH OAK as I was hoping everyone believed connections’ story about him being a different horse in the height of summer rather than in mid May.
This has resulted in him currently being priced up the 11/2 favourite for a race he ran away with last year.
Given he is only 1lb higher and comes out of the stall next door this time around you can see why he is a well backed favourite as it looks like this may have been the plan for a while. He is the class horse here and I fancy him to go well.
As much as I am disappointed English Oak has been found in the market, I am equally as glad that NORTHERN EXPRESS hasn’t just yet.
Seven furlongs at Ascot and Northern Express go hand in hand and after a ‘quiet’ Spring he is now 1lb lower than his last winning mark which suggests to me this race has been the plan for a while.
A plum draw in centre field is ideal and a current price of 33/1 looks far too good to be true.
