Our resident tipster Ben Morgan gives his picks for the opening day at Royal Ascot
2.30 – Lead Artist has a steady hand in Royal opener
Every time I think about this in my head, I have been finding a different selection such is the competitiveness of the race.
I think the Lockinge form is the most obvious place to look for the winner, but which of the key 4 protagonists in that race will it be is the debate on everyone’s minds.
At first, I thought Rosallion and Notable Speech are the main contenders as they are bound to progress from their run in the Lockinge, as both would have needed it.
But then I think, well, they will have to, as Dancing Gemini and LEAD ARTIST were nicely clear of them at the line.
Then, looking at previous winners of the race, this is a race which tends to go the way of a strong staying miler who will probably be ridden handy, which has just about swung my final decision in John Gosden’s improving four-year-old’s favour.
He doesn’t have the 3-year-old form that his rivals boast, but I do think he has plenty more to offer at this trip, especially over a stiff course like Ascot.
As much as Rosallion and Notable Speech will come on for that run, I think my selection will also improve from it, and this test will be in his favour, and I can see him proving hard to pass in the final furlong if this turns into a scrap. If I can steal some 5/1 in the morning, I think he is a great each way play.
3.05 – Underwriter to write his own story in Coventry
Albert Einstein’s late defection to this race has left a sour taste in many a punter’s mouth, including my own, and you would now have to wonder about the chances of Aidan O’Brien‘s runners in this race as they clearly weren’t first string and both look a little ‘last minute’.
The Wathnan team look to hold a strong hand, and I’m hoping James Doyle has made a mistake on choosing Postmodern, as I really like UNDERWRITER, who passed all the visual tests when winning at Ayr on debut.
Put away after that performance, his trainer Archie Watson certainly knows how to ready one for this race, as his Coventry record speaks for itself.
I would rather have seen Hollie Doyle aboard; however, the Aussie, James McDonald, is no stranger to success here and is sure to give him every chance.
All the fancied ones are drawn high, so I think that will be the place to be however if you want to chance one down low, then POWER BLUE looks a little overpriced given his form.
At around 20/1, he could win his side and produce some returns.
3.40 – Fast pace to suit Walker’s flying filly
The King Charles III stakes might lack some depth, but it certainly doesn’t lack for competitiveness.
This wouldn’t be a vintage renewal by any means, but it will still take some winning, and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if there is a shock winner.
I am quite taken with MGHEERA, who should really appreciate the stiff 5f test that Ascot presents as she is a little slow out of the stalls and can be on the back foot.
She does have a tendency to rattle home, though, as she showed at Haydock last time out, and these fillies/mares can get faster/better with age, which it looks like she is doing. I don’t think she has reached her ceiling yet.
4.20 – Rashabar could steal the show
This obviously looks at the mercy of the ultra impressive Irish 2000 Guineas winner, Field Of Gold, but at 5/6 I can happily let him win at that price.
As much as it would be great to see the three Guineas winners do battle from the furlong pole, I just can’t see that playing out as these match-ups very rarely throw up the expected.
Looking at the race and wondering how it might play out, I’m hoping for a steadily run event where the favourite perhaps gets stuck in a pocket turning in which allows a horse like RASHABAR to kick for home.
I think he is better than what he showed in the Irish 2000 Guineas, albeit it was a hot event, and he might just show improved form for racing around a bend here.
He sprung a surprise here last year on Day 1, and those horses have a knack for popping their head up when you least expect it. At 25/1 I will chance him to pinch it off the home bend.
5.00 – O’brien holds the key to Ascot Stakes
I like the look of the team that Joseph O’brien sends out here, and I think there is a good chance he takes home the majority of the prize money.
I think NURGBURGRING is going to win another big handicap sooner rather than later, and I’m hopeful it could be this one.
A wide draw means he may have to take his medicine early, but I’m hopeful there will be a good pace on here, which plays into his hands up the home straight.
His form is there for all to see, so I think 16/1 is a fair price to take. I will also be keeping an eye on ZOFFEE as he looks sound, each way value given his consistent profile in these races.
5.35 – Two-pronged attack should be enough to land Wolferton
I’m going to have to have two darts at the board here, as I think I will be kicking myself if I just went with one and not the other.
I’m going to play HAATEM and SONS AND LOVERS, both win only, as I am very hopeful one of them can land the spoils.
Haatem is a crack 3-year-old miler stepping up to 10f for the first time after a couple of underwhelming runs over 1m this season.
I think there have been plausible excuses both times to be fair to him but those runs have convinced connections to try a bit further with him.
I don’t think it will be a problem for him as he has a lovely attitude and takes everything in his stride. He has the plum draw in 5 and I think he will go close barring accidents.
My second play, Sons and Lovers has form this season to suggest he should be a lot better than listed class and with no penalties here, it looks like connections are close to executing what has undoubtedly been a long-term plan.
Ryan Moore is in the saddle which is a big boost straight away and if he negates the awkward draw in 1 then I think he will be challenging come the line.
6.10 – Samui to show he’s made of steel in Copper Horse Handicap
I don’t think this is a strong renewal of this race, so I’m happy to take a view on SAMUI at a big price. Gordon Elliott has enlisted Colin Keane to do the steering, which looks a positive jockey booking, and the return to quick ground should see him in a different light.
A revelation on the flat this time last Summer, he scaled the ranks quite quickly and had some top form in the book but that form curtailed towards the end of the year when soft ground blunted his speed.
After a quiet Spring, I expect him to bounce back to form here and at 25/1 I am more than happy to support him each way.
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