The American triple crown of horse racing might not be as fabled as it was in the past, but that doesn't mean it's not a huge achievement for any mount, jockey or trainer that manages to get across the line in the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes.
Only 13 horses have captured the title in the event's 146-year history. With Justify and American Pharoah winning most recently, the expectations are high because these two former-three-year-old legends have proved that the achievement is doable. Is there a runner with a realistic chance of accomplishing the feat this year? Let's find out.
What Do Triple Crown Winners Usually Have in Common?
The best place to begin the search is to look for horses that share similarities to former winners. Although it's not an exact art, there are enough features to hone in on for pundits and punters. For example, looking back over the years, the pedigree of three-year-old runners tends to lead to success.
This was the case for Omaha in 1935, the offspring of 1930 triple crown winner Gallant Fox. They might be the only father and son combination to have won a triple crown each, yet there are plenty of other nags that have exceptional pedigrees. The stand-out one is War Admiral. Born to the great Man o' War, the Admiral made history even after stumbling at the start of the Belmont Stakes.
From the potential entrants for 2021, Known Agenda is a mount with an incredible lineage thanks to dad, Curlin. Curlin was an outstanding performer on the dirt between nine and ten furlongs, being named Horse of the Year in 2007.
What Don't They Have?
As well as calculating what entrants need to be victorious, it's also essential to figure what they need but don't have. That way, you can sort the weak from the strong and focus only on the runners that deserve your attention.
This is best highlighted by the fact that a filly or gelding has never won the triple crown in 146 years. Stallions, it appears, are primed to dominate the field in 2021 as they have done for pretty much every edition in almost a century and a half. Therefore, the likes of a highly fancied mount such as Vequist could struggle as she's a filly. While her form is eye-catching – Vequist was 2020's champion two-year-old – the data points out that it's hard to take on the boys and win the triple crown series.
Their odds for a leg of the triple crown, particularly the Derby, are strong. However, the likelihood of them going on to win the Belmont Stakes, in particular, is very small.
Can This Data Be Applied to Contemporary Horses?
Although it seems as if anything can win on the day, the truth is that the historical data shows a lot about a horse's chances of winning a major race, especially three of them on the bounce. The best tipsters don't rely on their “gut instinct” when selecting their choices – they have a more scientific approach.
For example, algorithms can crunch complicated information to find patterns that reveal powerful insights into race outcomes. The most successful sites use such tools to calculate horse racing tips and share their opinions with their audiences, especially in Ireland and the UK where the betting and tipping industries are incredibly prominent. As a result, judging from the benchmark set in Europe, it's far better to adopt a system that includes essential data, such as a horse's pedigree, sex, jockey and trainer, than it is to pick blindly. With the numbers on your side, you'll find the enigma that is horse racing becomes a little bit easier since you can eliminate the mounts with zero-to-no opportunities, and concentrate on the racers with a strong background.
In conclusion, some horses have opportunities to win America's triple crown this year, just like there are every year. However, to find them, you're going to need to embrace a reliable system that factors in a wealth of considerations.
