By Will Hickman
The Old Roan Chase is one of the first big jumps race of the National Hunt season, and although it isn't held in the same regard as the Paddy Power or the Hennessy Gold Cup's, it has seen some real stars use this as a springboard to their jumps campaigns. Last year was a particularly weak renewal, with Conquisto taking the honours before being largely disappointing for the rest of the season. This year, however, we have a few potential stars thrown into the mix, with one horse in particular standing out from the rest.
That horse is Uxizandre, who since the defection of Dynaste has been made the 4/1 favourite. Twelve months ago you probably hadn't heard of him, but he leapt into the spotlight when he was a gallant runner up in the JLT Novices Chase at Cheltenham. That day in March he made most of the running, jumping spectacularly and seeing off every horse bar one, the highly regarded Taquin Du Seuil, who won under an inspired Tony McCoy. He had McCoy on side at Aintree, where he won impressively in the Manifesto's Novices Chase, winning a lot more easily than the two length margin over Oscar Whisky suggests. Given that Oscar Whisky is well fancied for the Paddy Power next month, you have to believe that Uxizandre is well treated off a mark of 158. There is the possibility that he will be a prime Ryanair candidate next spring, and he would have to win this to have any chance of realising that potential.
Close behind in the betting is Module, who came very close to the top in the two mile division last season. His highlight of the year was winning the Game Spirit at Newbury, before he came a gallant third in the Champion Chase, bettered only by Sire De Grugy and Somersby, the horse who had just denied him the Haldon Gold Cup on his seasonal debut. He is now rated 164, some 12lbs higher than the 152 that he failed to win off last season. Throw in that he's best over the bare minimum trip, and it's hard to see this horse giving weight away to Uxizandre and winning.
Another fancied runner is Rajdhani Express, a progressive seven year old who defied his odds to finish third behind Dynaste in the Ryanair back in March. He now runs off a mark of 158, a fairly high mark considering he was soundly beaten off a mark of 155 in last year's Paddy Power. He may still have improvement in him, but he has never won first time out, usually showing his best on his second or third starts of the season.
Next up is last year's winner Conquisto, who after a disappointing spring saw his handicap mark drop down to 146, 4lbs less than the mark he won off last year. That drop means he is fancied for this, but this year's race includes some classier animals, and Conquisto won't benefit from having McCoy in the saddle.
Paul Nicholls' principle runner is Rolling Aces, a Grade Two winning eight year old who has had hit and miss form throughout his career. He kicked off last year by winning the Powers Irish Whiskey Chase at Down Royal, but subsequent efforts were rather poor, bar his Aintree run where he found only Boston Bob too good in the Grade One Melling Chase. On that form he would have to be competitive off a mark of 156, and two and a half miles is definitely his best trip; 8/1 is too big a price.
Further down the betting we have a collection of horses who ran in this race last season. That list includes Viva Colonia, Mr Moonshine, Wishfull Thinking, and Edgardo Sol, who all finished 3rd, 4th, 6th and 7th, respectively. The first of these is the rank outsider, even though he runs off an identical mark that saw him place in this last year. The reason for that may be the strength of this year's opposition, combined with how his form tailed off last spring. In contrast Mr Moonshine's successful season has seen his rating go up 8lbs over the last twelve months, which makes him quite badly handicapped for this. Due to Module's participation, Wishfull Thinking doesn't head the weights this time around, but he is running off a 2lb higher mark. He did manage to win off 156 last season, but winning this off a mark of 162 takes a bit of a stretch of the imagination. The last of these, Edgardo Sol, was soundly beaten 25 lengths last year, but has 5lbs less to carry this time around and is under the care of a new trainer. Emma Lavelle is now in charge of his training, and it will be interesting to see if she gets any improvement out of him.
Aside from these nine runners we also have Bold Sir Brian, Lucky William and Kie making up the field. The former was a Gold Cup hope two seasons back, but a very heavy fall back in January 2013 scuppered his season and he hasn't run for well over a year and a half. He will need this run but otherwise he would be well handicapped. He's definitely one to look for in the future. Lucky William is a Grade One winner, having won at the Punchestown Festival in 2012. Since then he has missed a year, and fell last time out in the PWC Champion Chase at Gowran Park. He has been show no leniency by the handicapper despite his absence, and runs off a mark of 145. Kie is a consistent handicapper for Donald McCain, but his highest winning mark is 137, a full 8lbs below the 145 that he'll shoulder here.
Give even a quick glance at the race and you'll see that Uxizandre is the most obvious choice for this, and rightly so. He is a Grade One winner who ran brilliantly at both Festivals, but is nowhere near to carrying top weight, something that will count massively as he sets out to make all and run his rivals ragged. Throw in that Alan King's string is on fire, he's a course and distance winner at Grade One level, and that he's secured the services of Barry Geraghty and the 4/1 on offer is a gift from the bookmakers.
One that may throw a spanner in the works is Rolling Aces, who can run brilliantly just as often as he runs disappointingly. This is the same course and distance from when he came second in the Melling Chase, and he is once again ridden by Nick Schofield, who knows him well having won on him three times. The 8/1 available with Paddy Power is a cracking each way bet.
Win: Uxizandre 4/1 Bet365
Place: Rolling Aces 8/1 Paddy Power
